The McKinney (180) Plan · Buda, TX 78610

$308,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,798 sqft · SingleFamily · 136 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mingle with guests while entertaining in the McKinney's open-concept main level. The upstairs loft makes a perfect playroom with a storage closet to hide the mess. Secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bath.

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Storage closet
• Jack-and-jill bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• STORAGE CLOSET
• JACK-AND-JILL BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $308,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $395,445.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $309k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-882 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#339 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Camino Real El (math 22% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 782 students, 76% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1319 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,317 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.56%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $395,445
• List price: $308,990
• Delta: -21.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6514 Velvet Leaf Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,927 (+7%)	4mo	$399,900	$208	81
6822 Rounded Pebble Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,844 (+3%)	10mo	$419,691	$228	74
6501 Night Chinook Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,616 (-10%)	2mo	$315,000	$195	70
6511 Velvet Leaf Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,029 (+13%)	6mo	$364,990	$180	68
6405 Rounded Pebble Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,719 (-4%)	12mo	$349,800	$203	68
6507 Velvet Leaf Ln	0.01mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,043 (+14%)	4mo	$390,990	$191	66
6503 Velvet Leaf Ln	0.03mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,043 (+14%)	6mo	$365,990	$179	64
6513 Velvet Leaf Ln	0.01mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,043 (+14%)	10mo	$384,900	$188	61
6400 Velvet Leaf Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,020 (+12%)	9mo	$397,150	$197	59
13100 Dairywork Rd	0.33mi	3/2.5	2,034 (+13%)	9mo	$399,000	$196	55
13003 Cerulean Spring Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (+10%)	1mo	$374,990	$189	45
13011 Cerulean Spring Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,029 (+13%)	0mo	$347,990	$172	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-127,068
• Equity at exit: $58,962

10-year hold

• IRR: -74.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.89×
• Total profit: $-209,355
• Equity at exit: $34,191

Cash invested: $110,725 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 35.3 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $349,990 ($189/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1319
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,343 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,074
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$494 /mo · $5,932/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-882

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,459

Max offer price $267,858

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-608	-5% $-745	+0% $-882	+5% $-1,018	+10% $-1,155
Rent	-10% $-1,067	-5% $-974	+0% $-882	+5% $-789	+10% $-697
Rate	-1.0pp $-683	-0.5pp $-781	base $-882	+0.5pp $-984	+1.0pp $-1,088

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,861
• Closing costs: $11,863
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6411 Velvet Leaf Ln Austin, TX	4.0	3.5	2528	$2,650	$1.05	28d	1	0.08mi
6413 Night Chinook Dr Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2250	$2,550	$1.13	21d	1	0.19mi
12602 Dairywork Rd Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	2228	$2,400	$1.08	21d	1	0.21mi
6401 Night Chinook Dr Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2072	$2,900	$1.40	9d	1	0.22mi
12309 Dairywork Rd Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,300	$1.36	93d	1	0.24mi
6401 Mallord Brook Bnd Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2072	$2,900	$1.40	93d	1	0.27mi
13013 Barrister Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,050	$1.29	93d	1	0.27mi
13107 Barrister Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,200	$1.38	93d	1	0.29mi
12809 Village Spun Plz Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,000	$1.14	73d	1	0.36mi
3511 Turner Village Dr Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1798	$1,950	$1.08	35d	1	0.41mi
11709 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1325	$1,950	$1.47	21d	1	1.03mi
11701 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2130	$7,000	$3.29	17d	1	1.05mi
11633 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,995	$1.32	93d	1	1.06mi
11629 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	9d	1	1.06mi
11629 Lago de Garda Dr Unit NA Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	11d	1	1.06mi
11620 Comano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,600	$1.68	53d	1	1.10mi
11913 Ellena Cv Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,995	$1.36	28d	1	1.15mi
11913 Ellena Cv Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,995	$1.36	27d	1	1.15mi
12013 Russo Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,095	$1.37	35d	1	1.18mi
12013 Russo Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,095	$1.37	32d	1	1.18mi
11905 Murano Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$2,195	$1.50	9d	1	1.18mi
11516 Milano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1987	$2,100	$1.06	33d	1	1.19mi
11416 Milano Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$2,050	$1.21	93d	1	1.22mi
11701 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,995	$1.32	65d	1	1.25mi
5705 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,150	$1.40	69d	1	1.26mi
5604 Respinto Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,920	$1.33	52d	1	1.27mi
11605 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2073	$2,295	$1.11	32d	1	1.28mi
11612 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,400	$1.44	67d	1	1.28mi
11601 Domenico Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,100	$1.45	38d	1	1.29mi
4907 Escape Rivera Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,350	$1.37	67d	1	1.31mi
11513 Murano Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$2,100	$1.43	93d	1	1.34mi
11301 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$2,150	$1.49	25d	1	1.35mi
11808 Seaside Woods Dr Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	1963	$2,575	$1.31	11d	1	1.37mi
4906 Seadrift Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2166	$2,950	$1.36	31d	1	1.41mi
11802 Hurricane Haze Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2146	$2,845	$1.33	69d	1	1.43mi
11313 County Down Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2334	$2,900	$1.24	64d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $308,990 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $308,990 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $308,990 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $308,990 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $308,990 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $308,990 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $308,990 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $308,990 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $308,990 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $308,990 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $308,990 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $308,990 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $308,990 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $308,990 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $308,990 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $308,990 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $308,990 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $308,990 Active 112 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $308,990 Active 111 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $308,990 Active 110 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $308,990 Active 109 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $308,990 Active 108 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $308,990 Active 107 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $308,990 Active 106 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $308,990 Active 104 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $308,990 Active 103 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $308,990 Active 102 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $308,990 Active 100 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $308,990 Active 99 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $308,990 Active 98 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $308,990 Active 97 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $308,990 Active 96 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $308,990 Active 95 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $308,990 Active 94 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $308,990 Active 93 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $308,990 Active 91 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $308,990 Active 89 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $308,990 Active 88 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $308,990 Active 85 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $308,990 Active 84 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $308,990 Active 83 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $308,990 Active 82 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $308,990 Active 80 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $308,990 Active 76 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $308,990 Active 75 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $308,990 Active 74 DOM
47. 2026-06-05
    days on market $308,990 Active 71 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $308,990 Active 70 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $308,990 Active 69 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $308,990 Active 68 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,151
• − Property taxes: −$5,932
• − Insurance: −$1,977
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,249
• − Management: −$2,249
• − Depreciation: −$11,504
• Taxable loss: −$17,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,307
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $44,950–$80,910 screening

The home requires significant updates to its interior and exterior to improve its condition and value. Painting, updating bathrooms, and landscaping are key areas to focus on for a substantial return on investment.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No photos of the kitchen
• Major Bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms
• Major Flooring — No photos of the flooring
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring can enhance the home's appeal and value ↑
• Resale Update bathrooms — Modernized bathrooms can significantly boost the home's value ↑
• Resale Paint exterior — A fresh coat of paint can improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Camino Real El F TX #3,492/4,322 Nat'l #33,016/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Moe And Gene Johnson H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Buda

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #339
• US rank: #7407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 1,545,133 people
• City population: 48,319
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $279,990 Zillow