932 Road 5251 · Dayton, TX 77327

$149,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 60 Days on market

Built 1999 0.41 ac lot $134/sqft · 39% above area Est $108k · 39% over $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a generous 17,860 SQFT lot, this beautifully converted home offers the perfect blend of peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby city access. This 3-bedroom, 3 full bathroom home has been thoughtfully transformed to provide a spacious and functional layout ideal for families, entertaining, or simply enjoying your own private retreat. Each bedroom offers comfort and flexibility, while the three full baths add convenience and ease for everyday living. Your own expansive piece of land. Whether you envision weekend gatherings, additional improvements, parking for work vehicles, or simply enjoying open space with no close-back neighbors, this property gives you the freedom to live your lifestyle your way.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Open space
• Private retreat

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• EXPANSIVE PIECE OF LAND
• OPEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.93%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,900
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 38.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-527
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $34,917
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,131/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,206

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	15d	1	0.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-04-19
    listed $149,900 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Situated on a generous 17,860 SQFT lot, this beautifully converted home offers the perfect blend of peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby city access. This 3-bedroom, 3 full bathroom home has been thoughtfully transformed to provide a spacious and functional layout ideal for families, entertaining, or simply enjoying your own private retreat. Each bedroom offers comfort and flexibility, while the three full baths add convenience and ease for everyday living. Your own expansive piece of land. Whether you envision weekend gatherings, additional improvements, parking for work vehicles, or simply enjoying open space with no close-back neighbors, this property gives you the freedom to live your lifestyle your way.

15. 2019-07-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,131 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,613/yr (+$134/mo · 142.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,131
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,580
• − Management: −$1,580
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,830
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$439
• After-tax cash flow: $3,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2019-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,131 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.