150 Bumble Bee Ln · Swartz, LA 71203

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 182 Days on market

Built 2015 $59/sqft · 43% below area Est $207k · 40% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom 2 bath been updating/remodling. On 1.54 acres. Need sale asap . Just asking payoff!

Key facts

• Built 2015
• Listed 182 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $469 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 6.2% in Swartz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#184 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety D.
• Ouachita Parish (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #26 of 98 in LA (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 437 active listings in the ZIP; 345 units permitted in Ouachita Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.36%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,429
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -39.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
137 Baby Bee Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,882 (-12%)	1mo	$180,900	$96	70
190 Barnes Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,847 (-13%)	15mo	$148,000	$80	49
764 Swartz Fairbanks Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,340 (+10%)	14mo	$178,000	$76	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $9,660
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $47,025
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71203

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 437
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,703 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,223/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,109

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $540	-5% $505	+0% $469	+5% $434	+10% $398
Rent	-10% $335	-5% $402	+0% $469	+5% $536	+10% $604
Rate	-1.0pp $532	-0.5pp $501	base $469	+0.5pp $437	+1.0pp $404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 163 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 162 DOM
17. 2025-12-15
    listed $125,000 Active 93-char remark

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath been updating/remodling. On 1.54 acres. Need sale asap . Just asking payoff!

18. 2021-02-11
    listed $142,500
19. 2015-08-24
    soldstatus $139,108

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,223 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,223 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,223
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,635
• − Management: −$1,635
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,880
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$931
• After-tax cash flow: $4,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ouachita Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201200
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $43,316
• Composite: 32.14/100
• National rank: #5791
• State rank: #26 of 98 in LA

Livability — Swartz

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #14862

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Swartz, LA
• County: Ouachita Parish · 118,340 people
• Metro: Monroe, LA
• Population (ZIP): 38,354
• Household income: $52,326
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2085.0

Population outlook (Ouachita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 163,370 people
• By 2030: 165,520 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 167,652 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 166,699 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 156,348 · -4.3%
• By 2100: 134,102 · -17.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 45% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ouachita

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.5% · R 63.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+23.6 2016: R+25.4 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.01%
• Current HPI: 206.1948
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Monroe, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Listed $125,000 Fizber.com
• 2021-02-11 Listed $142,500 NELABOR
• 2015-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $139,108 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,223 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.