4215 E Bay Dr · Largo, FL 33764

$90,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 1981 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1 bedroom 1 bathroom ground level condo with fenced-in patio. The community has a clubhouse and 3 pools available for residents. 15 minutes to Indian Rocks Beach and 10 minutes to St. Petersburg Airport via E. Bay Drive.

Key facts

• Ground level condo
• Clubhouse
• 3 pools

Tags

• GROUND LEVEL CONDO
• FENCED IN PATIO
• CLUBHOUSE
• 3 POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $682 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 4.3% in Largo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#82 in FL, #1,240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Frontier Elementary School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 651 students, 72% FRL); Fitzgerald Middle School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 1,033 students, 62% FRL); Pinellas Park High School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,919 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.48%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $24,049
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $58,290
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33764

• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $744	-5% $713	+0% $682	+5% $651	+10% $620
Rent	-10% $552	-5% $617	+0% $682	+5% $747	+10% $813
Rate	-1.0pp $727	-0.5pp $705	base $682	+0.5pp $659	+1.0pp $635

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15672 US Hwy 19 N Clearwater, FL	—	1.0	300	$2,099	$7.00	10d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $90,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 220-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $90,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,723
• After-tax cash flow: $6,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Woodside Village Condominiums is in good condition with minimal cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace countertops and backsplash — Modern countertops and backsplash can significantly increase the home's value.
• Both Install new flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, boosting both resale and rental values.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace countertops and backsplash — Modern countertops and backsplash can significantly increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Install new flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, boosting both resale and rental values. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Largo

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #1240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Largo, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 106,311
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,311
• Household income: $67,256
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1118.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -350.08%
• Current HPI: 315.4133
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.24%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+25.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $90,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-02-16 Rental Removed $1,450 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-01-24 Listed for Rent $1,450 RENTALBEAST
• 2009-11-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-22 Listed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-04 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-02 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-28 Sold (MLS) $72,100 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-16 Listed $87,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-26 Listed $71,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid