538 Minnesota Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$134,999

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,553 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1920 3,900 sqft lot Est $179k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Bring your remolding ideas!! Fantastic opportunity for first time home buyer or investment in the highly desirable University District! This solid two-family home offers strong income potential with plenty of room to add value. Each unit features a functional layout, making it ideal for owner-occupants or savvy investors looking to expand their portfolio. The lower unit offers accessible features, providing added flexibility and broad rental appeal. Conveniently located near the university, public transportation, shopping, and dining, this property is perfectly positioned for consistent demand. With tons of potential to update, customize, or maximize rents, this is a rare chance to invest i

Key facts

• Two-family home
• Accessible features
• Prime location

Tags

• TWO-FAMILY HOME
• STRONG INCOME POTENTIAL
• ACCESSIBLE FEATURES
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $545/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 237 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,383/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 2873% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $135k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.58%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,595
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
587 Lisbon Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,573 (+1%)	7mo	$210,000	$134	80
496 Lisbon Ave	0.06mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-3%)	10mo	$155,000	$103	78
516 Dartmouth Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (-4%)	1mo	$140,000	$94	75
456 Minnesota Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (+2%)	13mo	$230,000	$145	74
715 Lasalle Ave	0.22mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,617 (+4%)	8mo	$250,000	$155	71
49 Thornton Ave	0.55mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,529 (-2%)	6mo	$100,000	$65	62
341 Parkridge Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (+2%)	8mo	$250,000	$158	57
591 Eggert Rd	0.35mi	5/2.0	1,725 (+11%)	12mo	$250,000	$145	56
314 Lasalle Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,675 (+8%)	8mo	$170,000	$101	54
188 Westminster Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,326 (-15%)	12mo	$129,000	$97	46
108 Hastings Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,463 (-6%)	18mo	$1,125	$1	40
279 Davidson Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,630 (+5%)	21mo	$188,000	$115	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $42,000
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $104,333
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,383 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $347/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $1,089

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,004

Max offer price $134,999

Occupancy floor 49%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,382
Total (2 units)			$2,383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
189 Westminster Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1065	$1,595	$1.50	10d	1	0.35mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	0.54mi
175 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	14d	1	0.63mi
65 Northrup Pl Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	14d	1	0.76mi
85 Highgate Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2193	$3,750	$1.71	14d	1	0.76mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,997	$2.93	1d	10	0.91mi
60 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	1d	1	0.97mi
91 Springville Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,350	$1.42	23d	1	1.09mi
63 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2240	$2,000	$0.89	1d	1	1.10mi
69 Berryman Dr Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	2056	$2,950	$1.43	1d	1	1.41mi
4098 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.5	2108	$2,200	$1.04	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-27
   listed $134,999 Active
3. 1996-11-27
   soldstatus $50,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $347 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,314 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$967/yr (+$81/mo · 278.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$347
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,288
• − Management: −$2,288
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $11,509
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,762
• After-tax cash flow: $10,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+165.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $134,999 WNYREIS
• 1996-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $50,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $347 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.