2900 Twilley #49 · Rancho Cordova, CA 95827

$89,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 707 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 2018 $127/sqft · 41% above area Est $64k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Only 7 Years old. Granite Counters. Newer Appliances. Including Refrigerator. 2 large bedrooms. 1 full bath. Rare Find. Possible SELLER financing. Refreshed and updated. Move in Ready. Completed by a licensed contractor. Double pane windows. Ceiling fans. Evaporative Cooler and central heat. New cabinets and new dishwasher, New sink. New Gas Stove New double sink. New above stove fan. New Garbage disposal. Bath has New sink and counter. Washer and dryer included. Waterproof laminate wood floor. Remodeled 2-Bed/1-Bath Manufactured not Mobile Home. Packed with modern features. Fresh paint inside and out. Modern, updated finishes throughout Located in a quiet, well-maintained FAMILY park. 20

Key facts

• Central heat
• Ceiling fans
• Double pane windows

Tags

• NEWLY REMODELED
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• CEILING FANS
• EVAPORATIVE COOLER
• CENTRAL HEAT
• GRANITE COUNTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $705 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,299 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.56%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,039
• List price: $89,999
• Delta: 40.54%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2904 Poole Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0	697 (-1%)	3mo	$55,000	$79	94
2901 Twilley Dr #40	0.01mi	2/1.5	672 (-5%)	9mo	$79,500	$118	82
10035 Mills Station Rd #71	0.31mi	2/1.0	720 (+2%)	4mo	$34,500	$48	79
2926 Poole Dr #25	0.05mi	2/2.0	756 (+7%)	5mo	$64,000	$85	78
10035 Mills Station Rd #60	0.36mi	2/1.0	720 (+2%)	7mo	$78,000	$108	75
10035 Mills Station Rd #39	0.36mi	2/1.0	720 (+2%)	9mo	$60,000	$83	73
10035 Mills Station Rd #157	0.36mi	2/1.0	720 (+2%)	10mo	$65,000	$90	72
2902 Routier Rd #7	0.09mi	2/1.5	784 (+11%)	7mo	$90,000	$115	70
10035 Mills Station Rd #122	0.32mi	2/1.0	720 (+2%)	15mo	$46,500	$65	70
10035 Mills Station Rd #11	0.36mi	2/1.0	684 (-3%)	10mo	$92,500	$135	69
2905 Weikert Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0	604 (-15%)	11mo	$29,000	$48	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $29,343
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $79,458
• Equity at exit: $7,781

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95827

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $755/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $705

Break-even live

Break-even rent $725

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2929 Routier Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,995	$2.53	2d	15	0.16mi
2080 W La Loma Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	587	$1,395	$2.37	44d	2	0.24mi
2080 W La Loma Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$1,645	$2.53	18d	3	0.24mi
2590 Capitales Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	559	$1,495	$2.67	20d	2	0.37mi
2590 Capitales Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	559	$1,495	$2.67	12d	1	0.37mi
2590 Capitales Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	559	$1,495	$2.67	15d	1	0.37mi
2729 El Parque Cir Unit 3 Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	24d	1	0.37mi
10108 Malaga Way Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	765	$1,776	$2.32	8d	1	0.55mi
10335 White Rock Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$1,450	$2.32	11d	2	0.84mi
10401 Rockingham Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$1,450	$2.03	8d	6	0.91mi
10421 El Mercado Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	702	$1,651	$2.35	2d	1	1.04mi
2416 Moraine Cir Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	710	$1,188	$1.67	16d	2	1.13mi
3060 Laurelhurst Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,395	$2.15	44d	1	1.14mi
10460 El Mercado Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0	1.0	626	$1,295	$2.07	2d	1	1.15mi
3545 Mather Field Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	604	$1,775	$2.94	2d	5	1.21mi
9838 Lincoln Village Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	732	$1,601	$2.19	3d	8	1.40mi
10515 Mills Tower Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	665	$1,495	$2.25	11d	1	1.40mi
9830 Lincoln Village Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,298	$2.60	15d	1	1.42mi
2830 Mills Park Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	712	$1,525	$2.14	24d	5	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,999 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,999 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,999 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $89,999 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,999 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,999 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,999 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 44 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $755 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $755 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$755
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,784
• After-tax cash flow: $6,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,742
• Household income: $85,841
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.22%
• Current HPI: 349.4168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $755 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.