90 Denise St · Noyack, NY 11963

$2,795,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1970 0.57 ac lot $2578/sqft · 291% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

, Additional information: Appearance:mint,Interior Features:Marble Bath

Key facts

• 0.57 acre lot
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.79M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.37M (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.37M (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,680/mo this rent would consume 222% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $276k of equity ($19k loan paydown + $257k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $783k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$443k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.63M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $2.79M implies a 1371% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,368,026 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.45%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,648,077
• List price: $2,795,000
• Delta: 69.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $1,635,121
• Equity at exit: $2,353,893

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.36×
• Total profit: $4,976,124
• Equity at exit: $4,911,246

Cash invested: $782,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,680 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,657
• Tax from tax record: −$635 /mo · $7,615/yr
• Insurance: −$1,165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,973
• Net cashflow: $2,251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $20,831

Max offer price $2,795,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,833	-5% $3,042	+0% $2,251	+5% $1,460	+10% $669
Rent	-10% $380	-5% $1,316	+0% $2,251	+5% $3,186	+10% $4,122
Rate	-1.0pp $3,659	-0.5pp $2,962	base $2,251	+0.5pp $1,527	+1.0pp $790

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $698,750
• Closing costs: $83,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
364 Main St Unit B Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$35,000	$29.17	23d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,795,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,795,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,795,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,795,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,795,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,795,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $2,795,000 Active 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    , Additional information: Appearance:mint,Interior Features:Marble Bath

16. 2023-12-06
    listed $2,795,000 Active
17. 2019-11-17
    historical
18. 2019-01-31
    price $1,650,000
19. 2018-11-16
    listed $1,750,000 New
20. 1989-10-17
    soldstatus $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,615 · $635/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $27,425 · $2,285/mo
• Expected delta: +$19,810/yr (+$1,651/mo · 260.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $284,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$156,563
• − Property taxes: −$7,615
• − Insurance: −$13,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,733
• − Management: −$22,733
• − Depreciation: −$81,309
• Taxable loss: −$20,765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,984
• After-tax cash flow: $31,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,114
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1371.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $2,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-06 Listed $2,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-31 Price Changed $1,650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-16 Listed $1,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $7,615 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.