4651 Christopher Ave · Dayton, OH 45406

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1956 8,294 sqft lot Est $98k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home where no detail has been overlooked. Perfectly blending modern sophistication with everyday functionality, this home offers a turnkey living experience. Located in a fantastic neighborhood, you'll enjoy the convenience of a great community with nearby amenities, parks, and a welcoming atmosphere. The heart of the home features a chef-inspired kitchen with luxurious Calcutta stone countertops and top-of-the-line Samsung stainless steel appliances. A deep stainless steel sink, touch-activated faucet, and under-cabinet LED lighting add both style and practicality, ensuring this space is as functional as it is beautiful. Additional

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• New roof
• 8,294 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• CALCUTTA STONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BIOMETRIC WIRELESS SMART LOCK
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($457/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,634 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $97,740
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3462 Arlene Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,044 (-4%)	3mo	$130,000	$125	77
2521 Arlene Ave	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+8%)	4mo	$100,500	$85	77
4354 Free Pike	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,044 (-4%)	3mo	$82,500	$79	76
4647 Greenwich Village Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,057 (-3%)	5mo	$20,000	$19	76
2451 Grant Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-3%)	3mo	$75,000	$71	74
4867 Glencross Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+1%)	1mo	$172,000	$158	72
2504 Grant Ave	0.43mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (-3%)	1mo	$95,000	$90	69
4477 Gatewood Pl	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,032 (-5%)	1mo	$144,897	$140	67
4351 Redonda Ln	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+6%)	5mo	$54,500	$47	62
5130 Eichelberger Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+3%)	3mo	$51,000	$46	58
4075 Middlehurst Ln	0.62mi	3/1.0	979 (-10%)	2mo	$89,900	$92	53
4342 Nevada Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	997 (-8%)	5mo	$115,000	$115	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-20,128
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-14,529
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45406

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $494/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $77	+0% $38	+5% $-1	+10% $-41
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $-5	+0% $38	+5% $81	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $73	base $38	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5112 W Hillcrest Ave Unit 1 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	972	$700	$0.72	25d	1	0.40mi
4446 Waymire Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	22d	1	0.44mi
2002 Val Vista Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	975	$1,095	$1.12	22d	1	0.47mi
2408 Falmouth Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	806	$950	$1.18	25d	1	0.48mi
2014 Hickorydale Dr Unit 2016 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	45d	1	0.55mi
4629 Queens Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	0.60mi
2609 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	4d	1	0.65mi
3711 Pittsburg Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	45d	1	0.74mi
4132 Natchez Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	991	$1,250	$1.26	4d	1	0.77mi
3858 Haney Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$825	$0.97	4d	1	0.96mi
4527 Channing Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	946	$1,600	$1.69	45d	1	1.05mi
1720 Kings Mill Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	975	$925	$0.95	25d	1	1.07mi
1732 Harold Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	805	$925	$1.15	45d	1	1.14mi
3537 Otterbein Ave Unit d Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$925	$1.03	45d	1	1.14mi
3650 Otterbein Ave Unit 3650 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	4d	1	1.18mi
3652 Otterbein Ave Unit 3652 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	4d	1	1.19mi
4161 Mapleleaf Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	4d	1	1.24mi
3311 Otterbein Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1004	$1,300	$1.29	12d	1	1.25mi
3672 Karwin Dr Unit 3672 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1500	$995	$0.66	45d	1	1.29mi
3668 Karwin Dr Unit 3672 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1500	$995	$0.66	25d	1	1.29mi
4425 Thompson Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	864	$1,150	$1.33	4d	1	1.30mi
2109 Victoria Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	4d	1	1.33mi
4003 Whitestone Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,275	$1.16	45d	1	1.35mi
3552 Stanford Pl Unit 3552 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	45d	1	1.35mi
3552 Stanford Pl Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	25d	1	1.35mi
3031 Garvin Rd Unit C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1269	$1,150	$0.91	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-03-03
   soldstatus $130,000
2. 2025-12-03
   status Pending
3. 2025-10-10
   price $139,000
4. 2025-09-20
   price $149,000
5. 2025-09-01
   price $154,000
6. 2025-08-24
   status Active
7. 2025-08-08
   status Pending
8. 2025-07-14
   price $159,000
9. 2025-07-11
   listed $165,000 Active
10. 2020-04-10
    historical
11. 2020-01-27
    status Active
12. 2019-09-25
    status Pending
13. 2019-09-05
    listed $38,402 Active
14. 1978-09-15
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $494 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$837/yr (+$70/mo · 169.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$494
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,052
• − Management: −$1,052
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$472
• After-tax cash flow: $930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,991
• Household income: $41,796
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1504.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 16% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.75%
• Current HPI: 197.1302
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+306.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-03 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $139,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $149,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $154,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-08-24 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2025-08-08 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $159,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $165,000 Dayton MLS
• 2020-04-10 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2020-01-27 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2019-09-25 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2019-09-05 Listed $38,402 Dayton MLS
• 1978-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $494 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.