1164 16th Ave W · Birmingham, AL 35204

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1959 7,840 sqft lot $27/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House has fire damage. Investors only. Seller has second property at 4318 5th Ave Wylam and is willing to bundle the two together. SOLD AS-IS. No warranties.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1959
• Listed 102 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.1% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $399 of equity ($207 loan paydown + $192 appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $27,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.72%
• DSCR: 4.46
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,134
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -55.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1168 16th Ave W	0.01mi	3/1.0	1,112 (0%)	20mo	$54,900	$49	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.13×
• Total profit: $34,728
• Equity at exit: $9,685

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.53×
• Total profit: $80,017
• Equity at exit: $12,451

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35204

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $909/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $311

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $553	+0% $544	+5% $536	+10% $527
Rent	-10% $465	-5% $505	+0% $544	+5% $584	+10% $623
Rate	-1.0pp $559	-0.5pp $552	base $544	+0.5pp $536	+1.0pp $528

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1174 16th Avenue Thomas Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1000	$750	$0.75	44d	1	0.05mi
128 Thomas Cir Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	777	$2,550	$3.28	44d	1	0.45mi
1739 Huntington Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,150	$1.14	3d	1	0.97mi
517 11th Ct W Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	970	$795	$0.82	44d	1	0.97mi
213 Beech Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1288	$1,000	$0.78	20d	1	0.99mi
1411 Magnolia Dr Unit 1411 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	867	$950	$1.10	44d	1	1.00mi
757 10th Ave W Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1136	$1,000	$0.88	44d	1	1.00mi
609 Cherry Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,495	$1.35	24d	1	1.09mi
1425 Hibernian St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	24d	1	1.10mi
408 Miles Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,050	$0.76	22d	1	1.13mi
905 7th St W Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1029	$1,150	$1.12	44d	1	1.19mi
915 6th St W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1332	$1,075	$0.81	44d	1	1.21mi
1642 Graymont Ave W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1219	$1,090	$0.89	3d	1	1.30mi
315 Avenue U Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1088	$1,200	$1.10	3d	1	1.31mi
3113 Pike Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,275	$1.12	44d	1	1.34mi
612 12th St W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1242	$1,150	$0.93	44d	1	1.35mi
963 3rd St W Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,295	$0.90	24d	1	1.35mi
410 8th Ter W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,200	$0.83	16d	1	1.40mi
1101 7th Ave W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,250	$1.00	44d	1	1.40mi
1119 Graymont Ave W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,073	$0.85	2d	1	1.45mi
827 6th Ave W Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1214	$1,075	$0.89	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $30,000 Pending 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $30,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $30,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-05-07
    status Active 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    House has fire damage. Investors only. Seller has second property at 4318 5th Ave Wylam and is willing to bundle the two together. SOLD AS-IS. No warranties.

14. 2026-05-07
    historical Contingent 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    House has fire damage. Investors only. Seller has second property at 4318 5th Ave Wylam and is willing to bundle the two together. SOLD AS-IS. No warranties.

15. 2026-03-05
    listed $30,000 Active 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    House has fire damage. Investors only. Seller has second property at 4318 5th Ave Wylam and is willing to bundle the two together. SOLD AS-IS. No warranties.

16. 2016-10-02
    price $23,999
17. 2016-09-30
    price $20,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$909
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $6,463
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,551
• After-tax cash flow: $4,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 8,953
• Household income: $35,420
• Rent vs Own: 53.8% rent · 46.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 422.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.64%
• Current HPI: 201.0777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+43.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $30,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-10-02 Price Changed $23,999 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-09-30 Price Changed $20,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $909 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.