14 Burdick Ave · Warrensburg, NY 12885

$349,000

7 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,468 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1900 0.69 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

This is being sold with the adjoining lot for a TOTAL of 1.14 acres. Property has a brand new roof and 2 of the 3 units are renovated! Walking distance to anything and everything Warrensburg has to offer. Live in one and rent the other or build another dwelling on the other lot for even more income. Public water and sewer makes this even more convenient to own!

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• 0.69 acre lot
• 6 parking spots

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• 2 OF THE 3 UNITS ARE RENOVATED
• PUBLIC WATER AND SEWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 6 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Triplex; 2,468 total living area; Main road frontage of 152 feet
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Deck; Enclosed porch; Garden; Cleared lot; Corner lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three units, each with 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (one on first level, two on second level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Other basement
• Laundry & utility: Owner pays water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-342 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.6% in Warrensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#823 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Warrensburg Central School District (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #552 of 755 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warrensburg Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 361 students, 58% FRL); Warrensburg Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 302 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $243,500 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $168,208
• Equity at exit: $314,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $512,394
• Equity at exit: $678,030

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12885

• Home prices YoY: 19.6%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 23.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,435 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,486/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,869

Max offer price $288,496

Occupancy floor —

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,434
Total (2 units)			$2,435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $349,000 Active
3. 2007-07-30
   historical
4. 2005-06-28
   listed $269,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,486 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,692 · $391/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,206/yr (+$100/mo · 34.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$3,486
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,338
• − Management: −$2,338
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$10,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,493
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrensburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629910
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,828
• Composite: 41.15/100
• National rank: #7424
• State rank: #552 of 755 in NY

Livability — Warrensburg

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #823
• US rank: #15925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrensburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,531

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 60.30%
• Current HPI: 368.3803
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+29.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $349,000 Global MLS
• 2007-07-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2005-06-28 Listed $269,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,486 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.