12040 Maverick Dr · Willis, TX 77378

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 171 Days on market

Built 2006 9,365 sqft lot $119/sqft · 24% below area Est $262k · 24% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors. Welcome to thi well priced 3 bedroom home that will need TLC. This home features brick and siding construction. Step inside to find a welcoming open floor plan that flow seamlessly into a generous living area, perfectly designed for entertaining and everyday living. The open kitchen overlooks the living room, creating a warm and connected space for family and friends. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with an ensuite bath that includes dual sinks, a jetted tub, a separate shower, and a large walk-in closet. This property provides the perfect blend of privacy and space—while still being only minutes from top-rated schools, shops, restaurants, and entertainment.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Generous living area
• Primary suite

Tags

• BRICK AND SIDING CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GENEROUS LIVING AREA
• OPEN KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edward B Cannan El (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 672 students, 74% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,698 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,060
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -23.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12148 Brazos Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+0%)	1mo	$241,000	$144	77
12098 Mustang Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-3%)	1mo	$260,000	$160	74
12089 Maverick Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,562 (-7%)	13mo	$225,000	$144	67
12121 Maverick Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-8%)	9mo	$225,900	$146	66
12011 Maverick Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (+15%)	1mo	$239,900	$125	65
12132 Brazos Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (-2%)	7mo	$275,000	$168	64
12135 Mustang Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-4%)	9mo	$257,990	$161	61
9024 Zapata Way	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,857 (+11%)	9mo	$244,900	$132	57
12315 FM 2432 Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	13mo	$215,000	$148	55
12178 Mustang Ave	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,738 (+4%)	13mo	$285,000	$164	48
12175 Mustang Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,885 (+12%)	1mo	$325,000	$172	47
12398 Bagwell Rd	0.72mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,536 (-8%)	13mo	$475,000	$309	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-51,480
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-78,534
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,851 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$560 /mo · $6,719/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,161

Max offer price $156,698

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-132	-5% $-189	+0% $-245	+5% $-302	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-391	-5% $-318	+0% $-245	+5% $-172	+10% $-99
Rate	-1.0pp $-144	-0.5pp $-194	base $-245	+0.5pp $-297	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $200,000 Pending 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active Option Contract 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active Option Contract 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active Option Contract 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   status $200,000 Active Option Contract 166 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $205,000 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Calling all investors. Welcome to thi well priced 3 bedroom home that will need TLC. This home features brick and siding construction. Step inside to find a welcoming open floor plan that flow seamlessly into a generous living area, perfectly designed for entertaining and everyday living. The open kitchen overlooks the living room, creating a warm and connected space for family and friends. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with an ensuite bath that includes dual sinks, a jetted tub, a separate shower, and a large walk-in closet. This property provides the perfect blend of privacy and space—while still being only minutes from top-rated schools, shops, restaurants, and entertainment.

17. 2025-12-31
    listed $215,000 Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Calling all investors. Welcome to thi well priced 3 bedroom home that will need TLC. This home features brick and siding construction. Step inside to find a welcoming open floor plan that flow seamlessly into a generous living area, perfectly designed for entertaining and everyday living. The open kitchen overlooks the living room, creating a warm and connected space for family and friends. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with an ensuite bath that includes dual sinks, a jetted tub, a separate shower, and a large walk-in closet. This property provides the perfect blend of privacy and space—while still being only minutes from top-rated schools, shops, restaurants, and entertainment.

18. 2025-12-08
    historical
19. 2025-11-05
    price $240,000
20. 2025-10-24
    listed $250,000 Active
21. 2025-06-13
    historical
22. 2025-04-10
    listed $257,990 Active
23. 2006-06-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,719 · $560/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,719 · $560/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$6,719
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,777
• − Management: −$1,777
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,504
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $257,990 HARMLS
• 2006-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,719 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.