266 Sr 164 · Dover, AR 72837

$87,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 848 sqft · SingleFamily · 194 Days on market

Built 1948 Fair condition $104/sqft · 20% below area Est $110k · 20% under ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute remodeled two bedroom, one bath home with new flooring, paint and mini-splits.

Key facts

• Built 1948
• Listed 194 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($931 rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.8% in Dover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#59 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dover School District (rural): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #30 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Pope County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pope County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.24%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,900
• List price: $87,900
• Delta: -20.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
254 Ar 164 E	0.01mi	2/1.0	871 (+3%)	15mo	$119,900	$138	82
9510 Market St	0.14mi	2/1.0	884 (+4%)	6mo	$35,000	$40	81
188 W Water St	0.37mi	2/1.0	800 (-6%)	2mo	$50,000	$63	72
9 S Elizabeth St	0.31mi	2/1.0	800 (-6%)	14mo	$109,200	$137	64
636 Sr 164	0.34mi	2/1.0	960 (+13%)	3mo	$40,000	$42	60
159 Market St	0.40mi	2/1.0	936 (+10%)	12mo	$149,000	$159	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-6,075
• Equity at exit: $13,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,268
• Equity at exit: $7,600

Cash invested: $24,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72837

• Home prices YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$110 /mo · $1,318/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $769

Max offer price $87,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,975
• Closing costs: $2,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $87,900 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Cute remodeled two bedroom, one bath home with new flooring, paint and mini-splits.

2. 2026-04-23
   price $89,900 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Cute remodeled two bedroom, one bath home with new flooring, paint and mini-splits.

3. 2026-02-24
   price $94,900 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Cute remodeled two bedroom, one bath home with new flooring, paint and mini-splits.

4. 2025-12-29
   price $99,900 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Cute remodeled two bedroom, one bath home with new flooring, paint and mini-splits.

5. 2025-11-24
   price $109,900 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Cute remodeled two bedroom, one bath home with new flooring, paint and mini-splits.

6. 2025-11-13
   listed $119,900 Active 83-char remark

   Show marketing remark (83 chars)

   Cute remodeled two bedroom, one bath home with new flooring, paint and mini-splits.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,924
• − Property taxes: −$1,318
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$894
• − Management: −$894
• − Depreciation: −$2,557
• Taxable income: $146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35
• After-tax cash flow: $1,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home requires moderate rehabilitation, focusing on exterior repairs and landscaping to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant peeling
• Major exterior paint — Peeling and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Peeling and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover School District
• NCES district ID: 0505430
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $41,423
• Composite: 39.05/100
• National rank: #4061
• State rank: #30 of 238 in AR

Livability — Dover

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #8001

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dover, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,498

Population outlook (Pope County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,303 people
• By 2030: 67,635 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 70,046 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 72,107 · +8.8%
• By 2075: 78,042 · +17.7%
• By 2100: 82,343 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pope

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.7% · R 74.9% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.3pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+50.4 2016: R+50.5 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+43.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.85%
• Current HPI: 238.3337
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $87,900 NWARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $89,900 NWARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $94,900 NWARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $99,900 NWARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $109,900 NWARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $119,900 NWARMLS