2613 Francis St · Baltimore, MD 21217

$15,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,320 sqft · Townhouse public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1920 1,742 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FANNIE MAE HOMEPATH PROPERTY, BUYERS RECEIVE UP TO 3.5% IN CLOSING HELP FOR SETTLEMENT BEFORE 6/30/2011, RESTRICTIONS APPLY. GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO BUY AT A VALUE PRICE! NATURAL BRICK FRONT END OF GROUP ROW HOME LOCATED JUST MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN BALTIMORE & MARC TRAIN.

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual ground rent listed under income/expense information
• Financial info: Ownership is fee simple; Improvement and land assessed values recorded

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; No septic system (public sewer); Electric cooling; Natural gas for heating and hot water
• Home design: End of row/townhouse design
• Construction: Brick construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Finished above-grade area reported at 2,320; Below-grade unfinished area reported at 960
• Exterior features: End of row/townhouse; Ground rent exists (paid annually); Located within city limits

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Natural gas heating and hot water; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Basement present (other type)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $15k).
• Cap rate 142.9% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,293/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 2921% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $15k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $15,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 15.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 142.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 488.00%
• DSCR: 22.71
• GRM: 0.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $468,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2913 Parkwood Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,160 (-7%)	7mo	$60,500	$28	68
2512 Brookfield Ave	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,467 (+6%)	6mo	$305,000	$124	50
1731 N Bentalou St	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,175 (-6%)	6mo	$189,500	$87	49
801 Druid Park Lake Dr	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,013 (-13%)	1mo	$451,500	$224	42
1501 N Payson St N	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,000 (-14%)	4mo	$162,000	$81	37
833 Lennox St	0.70mi	4/4.5	2,075 (-11%)	3mo	$419,990	$202	33
835 Lennox St	0.69mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,075 (-11%)	3mo	$363,740	$175	32
810 Watts St	0.74mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,075 (-11%)	0mo	$433,990	$209	31
819 Lennox St	0.72mi	4/4.5	2,075 (-11%)	6mo	$457,000	$220	30
2028 Bolton St Unit CLARENDON 4ST SPEC	0.75mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,075 (-11%)	3mo	$389,990	$188	28
811 Lennox St	0.73mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,075 (-11%)	7mo	$426,995	$206	28
2034 Bolton St	0.75mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,075 (-11%)	7mo	$426,985	$206	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 28.40×
• Total profit: $115,068
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 67.38×
• Total profit: $278,804
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21217

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 0.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $1,708

Break-even live

Break-even rent $131

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 21%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,718	-5% $1,713	+0% $1,708	+5% $1,703	+10% $1,698
Rent	-10% $1,527	-5% $1,617	+0% $1,708	+5% $1,799	+10% $1,889
Rate	-1.0pp $1,716	-0.5pp $1,712	base $1,708	+0.5pp $1,704	+1.0pp $1,700

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2534 McCulloh St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	2861	$3,300	$1.15	24d	1	0.21mi
2201 Whittier Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	18d	1	0.27mi
2201 Whittier Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	44d	1	0.27mi
2511 Madison Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	2700	$2,700	$1.00	44d	1	0.28mi
2128 N Pulaski St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	2166	$2,200	$1.02	44d	1	0.42mi
1616 N Fulton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,795	$1.11	5d	1	0.50mi
1516 N Mount St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1830	$1,750	$0.96	15d	1	0.56mi
2535 Brookfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	2736	$1,500	$0.55	44d	1	0.58mi
914 Whitelock St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	2880	$2,250	$0.78	5d	1	0.58mi
1315 Presstman St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.63mi
1929 McCulloh St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	3293	$2,595	$0.79	44d	1	0.67mi
1927 Druid Hill Ave #2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	3312	$2,350	$0.71	44d	1	0.67mi
2401 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	5.0	2.0	2037	$1,800	$0.88	5d	1	0.73mi
2405 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	5d	1	0.73mi
815 Lennox St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1600	$2,790	$1.74	24d	1	0.74mi
2302 Mount Royal Ter Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	2351	$3,000	$1.28	24d	1	0.79mi
736 Watts St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	2000	$3,250	$1.62	44d	1	0.81mi
734 Watts St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1720	$2,900	$1.69	44d	1	0.82mi
1725 Druid Hill Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	2195	$2,100	$0.96	24d	1	0.83mi
3104 Tioga Pkwy Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,050	$1.25	22d	1	0.85mi
2305 Wichita Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1950	$1,300	$0.67	24d	1	0.86mi
1628 McCulloh St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,000	$1.00	5d	1	0.89mi
1613 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,800	$1.00	24d	1	0.90mi
1614 McCulloh St #1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	2885	$2,400	$0.83	44d	1	0.91mi
549 Mosher St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	2200	$1,350	$0.61	44d	1	1.03mi
2812 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,850	$1.12	44d	1	1.12mi
147 W Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	2400	$3,250	$1.35	44d	1	1.20mi
2917 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	24d	1	1.22mi
3348 Chestnut Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1702	$3,200	$1.88	24d	1	1.26mi
1509 Edmondson Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,275	$1.42	24d	1	1.30mi
3030 Windsor Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	2124	$1,995	$0.94	5d	1	1.34mi
1032 W Franklin St Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.5	1913	$2,650	$1.39	24d	1	1.43mi
1530 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,895	$1.15	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $15,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,202
• − Management: −$2,202
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $21,539
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,169
• After-tax cash flow: $15,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,792
• Household income: $38,409
• Rent vs Own: 70.0% rent · 30.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 12% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Hispanic 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.20%
• Current HPI: 104.2102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-75.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $15,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-06-05 Sold (MLS) $5,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-06-05 Sold (MLS) $5,700 MRIS
• 2011-06-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-04-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-04-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-04-26 Listed $8,500 MRIS
• 2011-04-26 Listed $8,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-03-30 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2011-03-18 Relisted — MRIS
• 2011-03-18 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2011-03-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-01-20 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2010-12-13 Listed — MRIS
• 2010-12-13 Listed $9,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-12-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-08-31 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2007-08-31 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2007-06-12 Listed — MRIS
• 2005-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,515 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.