2416 Blue Sky Ln · Lockhart, TX 78644

$195,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,201 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2014 6,255 sqft lot Est $201k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property is in Pre-foreclosure; therefore it is priced to reflect that; there is some movement for closing costs

Key facts

• 6,255 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2014

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Garage faces front; Total of 4 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces west; Resale property; Entry on main level
• Construction: Shingle roof; Built per public records; Slab foundation; Construction details noted in remarks
• Exterior features: Exterior details noted in remarks; Covered front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window details noted in remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with washer hookup and electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,342 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,567
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2406 Windrow Ln	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,250 (+4%)	1mo	$175,000	$140	84
517 Thunderstorm Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+4%)	3mo	$159,990	$128	84
420 Silvercloud Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	2mo	$210,990	$167	79
428 Silvercloud Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	2mo	$210,990	$167	79
2330 Silvercloud Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	2mo	$224,990	$179	78
2318 Silvercloud Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	1mo	$219,990	$175	78
2305 Blizzard Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	4mo	$209,990	$167	78
435 Silvercloud Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	2mo	$212,990	$169	77
501 Silvercloud Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+5%)	3mo	$212,990	$169	76
233 Sunshadow Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+8%)	10mo	$220,000	$170	66
2306 Blizzard Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	5mo	$191,990	$139	61
2300 Blizzard Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	4mo	$194,990	$141	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-37,925
• Equity at exit: $29,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-40,640
• Equity at exit: $16,946

Cash invested: $54,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,773 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax from tax record: −$390 /mo · $4,681/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,898

Max offer price $178,579

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12	-5% $-43	+0% $-99	+5% $-154	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-169	+0% $-99	+5% $-29	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-49	base $-99	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,000
• Closing costs: $5,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Halfmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,600	$1.31	26d	1	0.07mi
406 Halfmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	0d	1	0.07mi
432 Thunderstorm Ave Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,600	$1.33	0d	1	0.08mi
510 Sunray Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	26d	1	0.18mi
416 Silvercloud Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,599	$1.08	45d	1	0.27mi
2304 Blizzard Dr Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	45d	1	0.27mi
2400 Fullmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,695	$1.15	45d	1	0.27mi
2327 Red Sky Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,795	$1.22	26d	1	0.30mi
2306 Red Sky Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,650	$1.10	0d	1	0.31mi
2306 Tornado Aly Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	26d	1	0.37mi
611 Halfmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,695	$1.15	13d	1	0.38mi
2215 Cyclone Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	14d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,999 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,999 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,999 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 112-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $195,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,681 · $390/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,681 · $390/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,979
• − Property taxes: −$4,681
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,702
• − Management: −$1,702
• − Depreciation: −$5,702
• Taxable loss: −$4,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,072
• After-tax cash flow: $-111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 324.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $195,999 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+26.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,681 · -8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.