121 Valleybrook Dr · Lancaster, PA 17601

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $321k · 30% under $356/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bright and spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath second-floor condo in desirable Valleybrook Estates (Manheim Township School District). Enjoy a low-maintenance lifestyle in a peaceful, well-kept community conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major routes. This home offers an open living and dining area, a private patio perfect for relaxing, and a primary suite with a full bath. Residents enjoy access to a beautifully maintained community center with clubhouse with pool. Lawn care, snow removal, exterior maintenance, are all included in the association fee—making this an easy-care home in a great location!

Key facts

• $356 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $356; HOA covers snow removal and lawn maintenance; Community amenities include clubhouse and outdoor pool

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; Off-street parking and shared parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric available; Natural gas available; Cable TV available
• Home design: Condominium; Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Shingle roof; Atrium door/window features
• Construction: Brick and masonry construction; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Porch(es); Community in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Cooktop; Gas oven/range; Single oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile/brick; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; 100 amp electric service
• Interior features: Open floor plan with combination dining/living area; Family room off the kitchen; Built-ins; Breakfast area; Kitchen eat-in
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Main floor laundry; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (9.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $203k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#71 in PA, #498 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-.
• Manheim Township SD (suburban): math 53% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #61 of 539 in PA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $225k implies a 254% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,467 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.32%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,408
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
354 Valleybrook Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-6%)	5mo	$318,000	$228	77
55 Valleybrook Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-6%)	5mo	$300,000	$216	77
357 Valleybrook Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-6%)	2mo	$376,500	$270	76
333 Valleybrook Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-6%)	8mo	$332,000	$239	75
41 Valleybrook Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-6%)	10mo	$357,000	$256	73
184 Valleybrook Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-6%)	15mo	$300,000	$216	72
397 Valleybrook Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-6%)	9mo	$285,000	$205	70
165 Valleybrook Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-6%)	14mo	$330,000	$237	66
363 Valleybrook Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-6%)	14mo	$285,000	$205	66
212 Greenview Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-3%)	6mo	$279,900	$194	59
119 Valleybrook Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,295 (-13%)	15mo	$245,000	$189	57
209 Greenview Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-3%)	15mo	$260,000	$180	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-41,692
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,737
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17601

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,264 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,374/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$356
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,419

Max offer price $203,467

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-58	+0% $-122	+5% $-186	+10% $-249
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-211	+0% $-122	+5% $-32	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-65	base $-122	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
725 Olde Hickory Rd Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,150	$2.25	14d	5	0.40mi
1917 Oregon Pike Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,685	$1.88	14d	6	0.87mi
520 Hedgerow Ln Lancaster, PA	4.0	2.5	1834	$2,900	$1.58	44d	1	0.98mi
2600 Lititz Pike Apt 2 Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.5	1373	$1,850	$1.35	14d	1	1.11mi
2686 Lititz Pike Lancaster, PA	4.0	3.0	1700	$2,575	$1.51	24d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $356 · $4,272/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsnow removalexterior maint.pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $225,000 Active
2. 2026-05-18
   historical $225,000
3. 1997-09-15
   soldstatus $63,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,374 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,464 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: +$91/yr (+$8/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,374
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − HOA: −$4,272
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,223
• After-tax cash flow: $-240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manheim Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4214580
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $68,335
• Composite: 53.18/100
• National rank: #1506
• State rank: #61 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #498

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 23,556
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 56,382
• Household income: $102,435
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1296.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.04%
• Current HPI: 257.0336
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.99%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+254.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-18 Coming Soon $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,374 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.