24 Robins Way · Springs, NY 11937

$5,300,000

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 3,591 sqft · Land · 85 Days on market

Built 2026 0.46 ac lot $1476/sqft · 229% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Light, Bright and Airy Close to Bay Beach This brand-new 3,591 square foot residence by Young Developments, perfectly sited on .43 acres, is tucked away on a quiet street just moments from Barnes Landing beach and Gardiners Bay. Filled with light from multiple skylights and expansive windows on all sides, and offering gracious open dimensions in both halls and public spaces, this steel-framed, 5-bedroom, 5.5-bath home provides luxury living with all modern amenities and super-efficient mechanical systems. A large custom white oak doorway accents the wraparound entrance porch and opens to a bright, wide two-story foyer with a clear sightline through the home to the west-facing grounds beyond. Off the foyer to the left is a glassed-in den/sunroom. To the right are a generous mudroom/closet, access to the attached two-car garage with EV charger, and a first-floor junior primary suite. Straight ahead lie the powder room and the core living area. The main living volume is composed of a great room and an open kitchen with a separate prep kitchen/pantry, Thermador appliances, custom oak cabinetry, and marble counters with a large island. This area faces a dining banquette that segues into the soaring dining and living space. In the living area, the centerpiece of the floor-to-ceiling wraparound windows is an 18-foot-wide glass nano wall that fully opens to the outdoor patios and backyard, creating seamless indoor/outdoor living and an abundance of natural light. Radiant-heated stone floors, rounded walls, and a Venetian plaster wood/gas fireplace define a space that is equally inviting in all four seasons. The wide main staircase, with its gentle ascent and skylight above, is filled with natural light and leads to the upper level, which includes three additional bedrooms and the primary suite. At the landing is a large laundry room and linen closet, with two bedrooms on one side sharing a Jack-and-Jill bath, a guest en-suite on the other, and the primary suite to the rear. The primary suite includes a large walk-in closet, a marble-tiled bathroom with skylight and separate shower and bath, radiant heated floors, wraparound windows, and a generous west-facing private terrace overlooking the sunny, landscaped backyard. All upper-level windows overlook 1,400 square feet of living roof that blends with the surrounding landscape and provides natural cooling in the summertime. Exterior features include wraparound decks, including a south-facing outdoor living area connected to the kitchen, expansive west-facing stone patios leading to a 20' x 40' heated Gunite saltwater pool, an outdoor kitchen, outdoor shower, changing cabana, and additional storage. The pool equipment is concealed below the cabana, providing quiet operation without interrupting the open, private, sunny lawns for play and entertaining. All of this is located in the desirable Barnes Landing neighborhood, approximately 2.5 miles from Amagansett Village and ocean beaches, and moments from Gardiners Bay beaches.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Multiple skylights
• Two-story foyer

Tags

• QUIET STREET
• MULTIPLE SKYLIGHTS
• EXPANSIVE WINDOWS
• CUSTOM WHITE OAK DOORWAY
• TWO-STORY FOYER
• GLASSED-IN DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath land listed at $5.30M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16k ($-197k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.92M (44.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.56M (51.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.56M (51.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 11.1% in Springs — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $25,565/mo this rent would consume 236% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $37k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $159k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($4.98M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $950k; list at $5.30M implies a 458% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,556,547 (51.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.29%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 17.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,609,561
• List price: $5,300,000
• Delta: 229.28%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-1,769,794
• Equity at exit: $790,247

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-2,272,093
• Equity at exit: $458,247

Cash invested: $1,484,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 17.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,565 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$27,794
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6,625 /mo · $79,500/yr
• Insurance: −$2,208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,369
• Net cashflow: $-16,430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $46,363

Max offer price $2,922,497

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,325,000
• Closing costs: $159,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Wolf Way East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.5	3200	$30,000	$9.38	1d	1	0.87mi
16 Woodege Cir Amagansett, NY	4.0	5.0	4025	$25,000	$6.21	1d	1	0.90mi
8 Devon Woods Close Amagansett, NY	4.0	4.5	4000	$25,000	$6.25	10d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,300,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $5,300,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $5,300,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,300,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,300,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,300,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,300,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,300,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $5,300,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $5,300,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $5,300,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $5,300,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $5,300,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $5,300,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-03-25
    listed $5,300,000 Active 3017-char remark

    Show marketing remark (3017 chars)

    Light, Bright and Airy Close to Bay Beach This brand-new 3,591 square foot residence by Young Developments, perfectly sited on .43 acres, is tucked away on a quiet street just moments from Barnes Landing beach and Gardiners Bay. Filled with light from multiple skylights and expansive windows on all sides, and offering gracious open dimensions in both halls and public spaces, this steel-framed, 5-bedroom, 5.5-bath home provides luxury living with all modern amenities and super-efficient mechanical systems. A large custom white oak doorway accents the wraparound entrance porch and opens to a bright, wide two-story foyer with a clear sightline through the home to the west-facing grounds beyond. Off the foyer to the left is a glassed-in den/sunroom. To the right are a generous mudroom/closet, access to the attached two-car garage with EV charger, and a first-floor junior primary suite. Straight ahead lie the powder room and the core living area. The main living volume is composed of a great room and an open kitchen with a separate prep kitchen/pantry, Thermador appliances, custom oak cabinetry, and marble counters with a large island. This area faces a dining banquette that segues into the soaring dining and living space. In the living area, the centerpiece of the floor-to-ceiling wraparound windows is an 18-foot-wide glass nano wall that fully opens to the outdoor patios and backyard, creating seamless indoor/outdoor living and an abundance of natural light. Radiant-heated stone floors, rounded walls, and a Venetian plaster wood/gas fireplace define a space that is equally inviting in all four seasons. The wide main staircase, with its gentle ascent and skylight above, is filled with natural light and leads to the upper level, which includes three additional bedrooms and the primary suite. At the landing is a large laundry room and linen closet, with two bedrooms on one side sharing a Jack-and-Jill bath, a guest en-suite on the other, and the primary suite to the rear. The primary suite includes a large walk-in closet, a marble-tiled bathroom with skylight and separate shower and bath, radiant heated floors, wraparound windows, and a generous west-facing private terrace overlooking the sunny, landscaped backyard. All upper-level windows overlook 1,400 square feet of living roof that blends with the surrounding landscape and provides natural cooling in the summertime. Exterior features include wraparound decks, including a south-facing outdoor living area connected to the kitchen, expansive west-facing stone patios leading to a 20' x 40' heated Gunite saltwater pool, an outdoor kitchen, outdoor shower, changing cabana, and additional storage. The pool equipment is concealed below the cabana, providing quiet operation without interrupting the open, private, sunny lawns for play and entertaining. All of this is located in the desirable Barnes Landing neighborhood, approximately 2.5 miles from Amagansett Village and ocean beaches, and moments from Gardiners Bay beaches.

16. 2024-09-06
    soldstatus $950,000
17. 2022-08-03
    soldstatus $740,000
18. 2022-06-27
    soldstatus $740,000 Closed
19. 2022-04-22
    status Pending
20. 2022-04-15
    listed $695,000 Active
21. 2020-09-18
    soldstatus $250,000
22. 2005-10-03
    soldstatus $450,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $306,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$296,882
• − Property taxes: −$79,500
• − Insurance: −$26,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,543
• − Management: −$24,543
• − Depreciation: −$154,182
• Taxable loss: −$299,364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$71,847
• After-tax cash flow: $-125,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1077.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $5,300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $950,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $740,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-27 Sold (MLS) $740,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-15 Listed $695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $838 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.