14444 Shepard Dr · Dolton, IL 60419

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,185 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1961 9,360 sqft lot Est $167k · 14% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained 1961 ranch-style home located at 14444 Shepard Dr in Dolton, Illinois. Nestled on a 9360 sq. ft. double lot (2 parcel numbers) in an established neighborhood, this inviting single-family residence offers comfortable one-level living with timeless appeal and plenty of potential to make it your own. Inside, you'll find a functional layout featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, a bright and welcoming living area, and convenient main-level living throughout. Large windows bring in natural light, creating a warm and airy atmosphere perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space with room to personalize and update to y

Key facts

• Solid construction
• Manageable yard
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• MAIN-LEVEL LIVING
• MANAGEABLE YARD
• SOLID CONSTRUCTION
• CLASSIC RANCH DESIGN
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Special service area applies; Possession at closing
• HOA & community: No master association fee required; Community features include sidewalks and street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Total parking for about 7 vehicles; Driveway, off-street and off-alley parking, alley access, additional parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story layout; Fee simple ownership; Built approximately 61–70 years ago; Living area and other size details provided by landlord/tenant/seller
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Home built before 1978
• Exterior features: Patio; Fenced yard with wood fencing; Landscaped lot with garden and level terrain; Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 117

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (main level); Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas cooktop and gas oven; Cooktop, Oven, Range Hood
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on main level); Master bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring in multiple main-level rooms; Carpet in master bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with baseboard; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Partially finished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer and Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#263 in IL, #4,883 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,197/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 919% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.62%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,085
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14315 Dobson Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+1%)	1mo	$194,888	$162	74
14619 Martin Luther King Jr Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,153 (-3%)	2mo	$163,000	$141	65
14222 S Woodlawn Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,089 (-8%)	2mo	$90,000	$83	61
14700 Avalon Ave	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,128 (-5%)	4mo	$125,000	$111	61
14341 University Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,035 (-13%)	1mo	$100,000	$97	60
14813 Evers St	0.63mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,127 (-5%)	3mo	$82,000	$73	55
14521 Kenwood Ave	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,249 (+5%)	1mo	$215,000	$172	55
14927 Cottage Grove Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,095 (-8%)	1mo	$250,000	$228	54
14819 Evers St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,304 (+10%)	1mo	$227,000	$174	44
14731 Kimbark Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,017 (-14%)	2mo	$115,000	$113	43
506 E 144th St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-14%)	2mo	$48,500	$48	43
14642 Dorchester Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,013 (-14%)	1mo	$170,000	$168	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,952
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $65,162
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60419

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,197 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$455 /mo · $5,464/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,938

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $313	-5% $259	+0% $205	+5% $151	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $31	-5% $118	+0% $205	+5% $292	+10% $379
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $253	base $205	+0.5pp $156	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14500 Cottage Grove Ave Unit 3 Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,475	$1.48	25d	1	0.11mi
14305 Irving Ave Unit 2 Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	25d	1	0.39mi
14433 Woodlawn Ave Dolton, IL	4.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	19d	1	0.42mi
14817 Champlain Ave Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	980	$2,430	$2.48	22d	1	0.52mi
14916 Langley Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.5	1418	$2,500	$1.76	25d	1	0.62mi
14716 Dorchester Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,800	$2.24	20d	1	0.72mi
14610 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1017	$2,400	$2.36	7d	1	0.79mi
14738 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1017	$2,400	$2.36	10d	1	0.85mi
14124 Manor Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,390	$1.66	25d	1	1.06mi
13841 Forest Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	930	$1,895	$2.04	25d	1	1.09mi
15231 Hastings Dr Dolton, IL	4.0	1.5	1487	$2,146	$1.44	8d	1	1.10mi
15238 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 2W Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	11d	1	1.17mi
409 Madison Ave Unit 2 Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,795	$1.50	4d	1	1.22mi
1860 State St Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	18d	1	1.32mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	8d	1	1.33mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	25d	1	1.33mi
405 Clyde Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.0	973	$2,300	$2.36	2d	1	1.39mi
14844 Wabash Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.5	1277	$2,320	$1.82	25d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $190,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,464 · $455/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,464 · $455/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$5,464
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,109
• − Management: −$2,109
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$104
• After-tax cash flow: $2,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Dolton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #263
• US rank: #4883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dolton, IL
• County: Cook County · 4,486,803 people
• City population: 20,825
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,825
• Household income: $57,887
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 919.0

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% White 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.88%
• Current HPI: 193.2346
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.65%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+35.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $190,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-26 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-23 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,464 · +33.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.