1605 N 21st St · Springfield, IL 62702

$85,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,074 sqft · Other · 1 Days on market

Built 1953 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-built 3bed RANCH with large dining/family room addition, connecting it to large attached garage with huge workshop and storage room too. Updated kitchen & bath, stove, newer windows, roof 2006, Furnace and AC in 2017, 13 month HWA Warranty free to buyers. All appliance including washer & Dryer stay! Within 2 blks of Fairview school. You will love the giant fenced back yard- large enough for a playset, pool, BBQ , and pets. Great find at great price.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 1953
• Construction: Shingle roof; Not new construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one on main level, others on upper/additional/lower levels as noted)
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and main living areas; Vinyl in kitchen and laundry
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Forced air heating; Space heater; Wall unit(s)
• Interior features: Cable available; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.01%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $7,784
• Equity at exit: $12,808

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $42,297
• Equity at exit: $7,427

Cash invested: $24,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62702

• Home prices YoY: -34.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,237 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$450
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,282/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $856

Max offer price $85,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $349	-5% $325	+0% $301	+5% $277	+10% $252
Rent	-10% $203	-5% $252	+0% $301	+5% $350	+10% $399
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $323	base $301	+0.5pp $279	+1.0pp $256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,475
• Closing costs: $2,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3501 E Ridgely Ave Unit FR21 Springfield, IL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,129	$0.93	22d	1	0.22mi
2281 E Keys Ave Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	45d	1	0.51mi
920 N 19th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	22d	1	0.72mi
1413 N 5th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	22d	1	1.16mi
3064 Louise Ln Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	22d	1	1.22mi
302 Forrest Ave Springfield, IL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,069	$1.16	22d	1	1.33mi
201 Eastman Ave Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	812	$950	$1.17	45d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $85,900 Active
3. 2021-06-25
   soldstatus $73,250 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Well-built 3bed RANCH with large dining/family room addition, connecting it to large attached garage with huge workshop and storage room too. Updated kitchen & bath, stove, newer windows, roof 2006, Furnace and AC in 2017, 13 month HWA Warranty free to buyers. All appliance including washer & Dryer stay! Within 2 blks of Fairview school. You will love the giant fenced back yard- large enough for a playset, pool, BBQ , and pets. Great find at great price.

4. 2021-06-25
   soldstatus $73,250

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Well-built 3bed RANCH with large dining/family room addition, connecting it to large attached garage with huge workshop and storage room too. Updated kitchen & bath, stove, newer windows, roof 2006, Furnace and AC in 2017, 13 month HWA Warranty free to buyers. All appliance including washer & Dryer stay! Within 2 blks of Fairview school. You will love the giant fenced back yard- large enough for a playset, pool, BBQ , and pets. Great find at great price.

5. 2021-06-04
   listed $76,000 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Well-built 3bed RANCH with large dining/family room addition, connecting it to large attached garage with huge workshop and storage room too. Updated kitchen & bath, stove, newer windows, roof 2006, Furnace and AC in 2017, 13 month HWA Warranty free to buyers. All appliance including washer & Dryer stay! Within 2 blks of Fairview school. You will love the giant fenced back yard- large enough for a playset, pool, BBQ , and pets. Great find at great price.

6. 2006-06-19
   soldstatus $65,000
7. 2006-06-15
   soldstatus $65,000 67-char remark

   Show marketing remark (67 chars)

   Very clean starter home. 3 bdrm, 1.5 car garage, 16x11.5 breezeway.

8. 2005-12-29
   listed $67,900 67-char remark

   Show marketing remark (67 chars)

   Very clean starter home. 3 bdrm, 1.5 car garage, 16x11.5 breezeway.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,812
• − Property taxes: −$2,282
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,188
• − Management: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$2,499
• Taxable income: $2,447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$587
• After-tax cash flow: $3,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 31,033
• Household income: $51,136
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.98%
• Current HPI: 149.1926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.95%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+26.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $85,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $73,250 Public Records
• 2021-06-25 Sold (MLS) $73,250 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-04 Listed $76,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-15 Sold (MLS) $65,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-29 Listed $67,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,282 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.