500 N Tully Rd #39 · Turlock, CA 95380

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · Manufactured · 28 Days on market

Built 1987 Good condition Est $111k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Senior Park home in the vibrant city of Turlock! This charming home offers 1,493 sq ft of comfortable living space, featuring 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The kitchen stands out with its versatile dining options, including a breakfast bar, dining area within the living room, and an eat-in kitchen, perfect for both casual meals and entertaining guests. Large master bathroom features a luxurious Walk-In whirlpool jetted bathtub for ultimate therapeutic soothing relaxation and safety. Separate shower and vanity with makeup counter and storage cabinet. Enjoy the coziness of a warm fireplace , complemented by the comfort of central AC and electric heating throughout the home. The property also includes convenient in-home laundry facilities, making daily chores a breeze. Laminate floors, ceiling fans throughout. Living room with lighted built-in hutch. Well maintained and ready to move in. . Whether you're looking to relax in the comfort of your home or take advantage of Turlock's community amenities, this property provides the perfect balance. Don't miss the opportunity to make this your new home!

Key facts

• Central ac
• Electric heating
• Built 1987

Tags

• IN HOME LAUNDRY FACILITIES
• LIGHTED BUILT IN HUTCH
• CENTRAL AC
• ELECTRIC HEATING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park home site classified as Other Park Site; Section serial numbers: 15752A and 15752B
• HOA & community: Clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned space number 39 (space rent $895)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Park home on an assessor-designated site
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air heating and cooling
• Interior features: Dining area; Wood-burning fireplace; Located in a senior community (one resident 55+)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $673 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.1% in Turlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#353 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, health & safety A-, commute B; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime D-.
• Turlock Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #334 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,065 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.36%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,556
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1400 N Tully Rd #168	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+0%)	2mo	$114,950	$77	73
1400 N Tully Rd #91	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,492 (-0%)	3mo	$85,000	$57	73
1400 N Tully Rd #121	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	0mo	$110,000	$76	69
1400 N Tully Rd #137	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+3%)	5mo	$113,000	$74	67
1400 N Tully Rd #60	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	11mo	$76,000	$53	60
1400 N Tully Rd #111	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,584 (+6%)	10mo	$118,000	$74	57
1400 N Tully Rd #27	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	21mo	$125,000	$83	56
1400 N Tully (Space 109) Rd #109	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+3%)	14mo	$110,000	$72	54
1400 - 2030 N Tully Rd #156	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	21mo	$110,000	$76	52
1400 N Tully Rd #43	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	22mo	$105,000	$73	51
1400 N Tully Rd #125	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-4%)	18mo	$132,000	$92	49
1400 N Tully #118	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	14mo	$79,900	$59	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $18,611
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $58,101
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95380

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1055 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1283	$2,000	$1.56	44d	1	0.81mi
1700 N Tully Rd Turlock, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,795	$2.01	13d	1	0.83mi
731 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	14d	1	0.92mi
402 S Laurel St Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$2,200	$1.91	14d	1	1.16mi
2541 Carnival Dr Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$2,295	$1.75	44d	1	1.30mi
1020 W Minnesota Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1691	$2,600	$1.54	21d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $129,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,900 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $134,900 Active 1122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1122 chars)

    Senior Park home in the vibrant city of Turlock! This charming home offers 1,493 sq ft of comfortable living space, featuring 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The kitchen stands out with its versatile dining options, including a breakfast bar, dining area within the living room, and an eat-in kitchen, perfect for both casual meals and entertaining guests. Large master bathroom features a luxurious Walk-In whirlpool jetted bathtub for ultimate therapeutic soothing relaxation and safety. Separate shower and vanity with makeup counter and storage cabinet. Enjoy the coziness of a warm fireplace , complemented by the comfort of central AC and electric heating throughout the home. The property also includes convenient in-home laundry facilities, making daily chores a breeze. Laminate floors, ceiling fans throughout. Living room with lighted built-in hutch. Well maintained and ready to move in. . Whether you're looking to relax in the comfort of your home or take advantage of Turlock's community amenities, this property provides the perfect balance. Don't miss the opportunity to make this your new home!

19. 2026-05-21
    listed $134,900 Active 1122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1122 chars)

    Senior Park home in the vibrant city of Turlock! This charming home offers 1,493 sq ft of comfortable living space, featuring 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The kitchen stands out with its versatile dining options, including a breakfast bar, dining area within the living room, and an eat-in kitchen, perfect for both casual meals and entertaining guests. Large master bathroom features a luxurious Walk-In whirlpool jetted bathtub for ultimate therapeutic soothing relaxation and safety. Separate shower and vanity with makeup counter and storage cabinet. Enjoy the coziness of a warm fireplace , complemented by the comfort of central AC and electric heating throughout the home. The property also includes convenient in-home laundry facilities, making daily chores a breeze. Laminate floors, ceiling fans throughout. Living room with lighted built-in hutch. Well maintained and ready to move in. . Whether you're looking to relax in the comfort of your home or take advantage of Turlock's community amenities, this property provides the perfect balance. Don't miss the opportunity to make this your new home!

20. 2026-03-14
    historical
21. 2025-10-11
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $6,405
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,537
• After-tax cash flow: $6,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming manufactured home in Turlock is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior functionality, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace worn-out flooring — New flooring can improve both resale and rental value.
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace worn-out flooring — New flooring can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turlock Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600158
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,249
• Composite: 26.58/100
• National rank: #7184
• State rank: #334 of 517 in CA

Livability — Turlock

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #11971

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Turlock, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 83,043
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,960
• Household income: $74,534
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1545.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 14% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -614.27%
• Current HPI: 307.7264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $134,900 MLSListings
• 2026-05-21 Listed $134,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-14 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-11 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR