227 N Lincoln Ave #1 · Nunn, CO 80648

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW spacious 3 Bedroom 2 Bathroom Manufactured home. Large Lot w/ area of future fenced yard area & perfect for storage sheds or covered parking. Move-In Ready & preferred lender offering Seller concession towards the interest rate to lower the monthly payment. Lot rent is $475 p/Month.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Large lot
• Fenced yard area

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• FENCED YARD AREA
• STORAGE SHEDS
• COVERED PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Accessibility features including stall shower and other low-entry accommodations
• HOA & community: No association fees or reserves

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No designated parking features
• Utilities: District water with meter installed; No water rights; Septic tank sewer; Natural gas available (Atmos); Electricity available; Trash service included in lot rent
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Post and pier foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Level drive; House faces west; Dirt road frontage; City street frontage; Minimal flood or C rating

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Low carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Walk-in closets; Jack and Jill bathroom; Kitchen island; Window coverings; Fire alarm

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#381 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Weld County School District No. Re-9 (rural): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #117 of 176 in CO (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Highland Elementary School (math 10% / reading 34%, grade F, #651 of 966 statewide, top 68%, 473 students, 41% FRL); Highland High School (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #176 of 381 statewide, top 49%, 285 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.91%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,580
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 N Lincoln Ave Spc 21	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-2%)	21mo	$85,000	$74	78
225 N Lincoln Ave #19	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+4%)	19mo	$63,000	$52	71
225 N Lincoln Ave #22	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-7%)	17mo	$95,000	$87	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $131,351
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.67×
• Total profit: $354,275
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80648

• Home prices YoY: 24.0%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $765	-5% $708	+0% $651	+5% $594	+10% $537
Rent	-10% $472	-5% $561	+0% $651	+5% $740	+10% $830
Rate	-1.0pp $734	-0.5pp $693	base $651	+0.5pp $608	+1.0pp $565

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,177
• − Management: −$2,177
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $5,511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,323
• After-tax cash flow: $6,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in good condition with a spacious layout and modern finishes. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value enhancement through landscaping and structural upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Addition of a fenced yard area — Expands the living space and can increase the property's value for both resale and rental purposes.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, which can increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Addition of a fenced yard area — Expands the living space and can increase the property's value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, which can increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County School District No. Re-9
• NCES district ID: 0802310
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,080
• Composite: 27.54/100
• National rank: #12358
• State rank: #117 of 176 in CO

Livability — Nunn

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #381
• US rank: #24796

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nunn, CO
• Population (ZIP): 1,423

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Lithuanian 5% Serbian 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.67%
• Current HPI: 432.8963
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — IRES
• 2026-04-20 Listed $165,000 IRES