528 21st Ave S · Birmingham, AL 35205

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,269 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1969 8,276 sqft lot $157/sqft · 35% below area Est $307k · 35% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HANDIMAN SPECIAL. THIS HOME

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1969

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,062 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.31%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,788
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -35.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
741 Rockhurst Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,277 (+1%)	1mo	$300,000	$235	63
302 Mecca Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-6%)	2mo	$465,000	$389	63
1513 Valley Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,288 (+2%)	2mo	$265,000	$206	61
612 19th Ter S	0.14mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,116 (-12%)	12mo	$308,000	$276	56
632 19th Ct S	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,098 (-14%)	11mo	$229,900	$209	56
600 10th Ct S	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,356 (+7%)	3mo	$180,000	$133	55
914 Highland Rd	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,402 (+10%)	2mo	$536,000	$382	52
308 Saint Charles St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+11%)	3mo	$707,000	$503	47
616 10th Ct S	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+7%)	12mo	$180,000	$133	43
1426 10th Pl S	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (+7%)	11mo	$285,000	$210	40
2019 Hollins Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-12%)	5mo	$165,000	$147	38
101 S 18th Ct	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,116 (-12%)	13mo	$140,000	$125	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-39,728
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-46,031
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35205

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,461 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,616/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $180,047

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-51	+0% $-107	+5% $-164	+10% $-220
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-165	+0% $-107	+5% $-50	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-57	base $-107	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1120 Beacon Pkwy E #408 Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,950	$1.32	2d	1	0.19mi
1229 Beacon Pkwy E Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$1,200	$1.06	4d	16	0.19mi
1010 Beacon Pkwy E Birmingham, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$2,275	$2.41	2d	18	0.35mi
834 Golden Gate Ln Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	2d	13	0.35mi
834 Golden Gate Ln Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	44d	12	0.35mi
915 Valley Ridge Dr Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1087	$1,660	$1.53	2d	34	0.36mi
925 Beacon Pkwy E Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1259	$1,199	$0.95	44d	1	0.47mi
840 Beacon Pkwy E Unit C Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	925	$1,200	$1.30	44d	1	0.58mi
2217-2249 Green Springs Hwy Unit 2249-E Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$910	$1.01	44d	1	0.60mi
2217-2249 Green Springs Hwy Unit 2241-M Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,109	$1.01	22d	1	0.60mi
513 Valley Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.63mi
1131 16th Ave S Unit A Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,215	$1.35	3d	1	0.65mi
1101 10th Pl S Birmingham, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,825	$1.85	4d	11	0.82mi
806 Gamma St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1252	$1,200	$0.96	44d	1	0.83mi
1425 13th St S Unit A Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	44d	1	0.86mi
1404 17th Ave S Unit 2 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,160	$1.29	44d	1	0.88mi
316 Beacon Crest Ln Birmingham, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,099	$1.29	3d	7	0.89mi
1417 13th Pl S Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,950	$1.57	22d	1	0.93mi
1717 Ashwood Ln Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.5	1368	$2,100	$1.54	3d	1	0.93mi
2822 16th Pl S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	914	$2,200	$2.41	17d	1	0.93mi
1332 14th Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	892	$1,075	$1.21	24d	2	0.98mi
1617 Beckham Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.5	1728	$2,828	$1.64	3d	1	1.01mi
1502 16th St S Unit ) Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	875	$995	$1.14	44d	1	1.01mi
1409 14th St S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	940	$1,257	$1.34	15d	1	1.02mi
741 Center Pl SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,250	$1.14	17d	1	1.06mi
856 Center Way SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,200	$1.05	44d	1	1.06mi
1414 13th Ave S Unit 1414 Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1039	$1,694	$1.63	44d	1	1.06mi
1414 13th Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1039	$1,772	$1.71	20d	2	1.06mi
1414 13th Ave S Unit 1418 Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1039	$1,700	$1.64	44d	1	1.06mi
1228 15th St S Birmingham, AL	3.0–4.0	3.0–4.0	1690	$2,689	$1.59	2d	3	1.08mi
506 Alpha St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	944	$1,373	$1.45	44d	1	1.14mi
1600 14th Ave S Unit 8 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,106	$1.23	22d	1	1.16mi
1600 14th Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,172	$1.30	15d	1	1.16mi
1327 16th St S Apt 4 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,110	$1.21	24d	1	1.16mi
1534 17th St S Birmingham, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0	848	$1,199	$1.41	2d	10	1.16mi
1327 16th St S Unit 3 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,143	$1.24	4d	1	1.16mi
310 Gamma St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1001	$1,200	$1.20	17d	1	1.19mi
306 Columbiana Rd Unit 308 B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1000	$865	$0.86	12d	1	1.20mi
1521 17th St S Apt 23 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	880	$875	$0.99	24d	1	1.21mi
1709 16th Ave S Apt 3 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	910	$1,363	$1.50	45d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 27-char remark

   Show marketing remark (27 chars)

   HANDIMAN SPECIAL. THIS HOME

2. 2026-05-05
   price $199,000 27-char remark

   Show marketing remark (27 chars)

   HANDIMAN SPECIAL. THIS HOME

3. 2025-12-01
   listed $225,000 Active 27-char remark

   Show marketing remark (27 chars)

   HANDIMAN SPECIAL. THIS HOME

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,616 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,616 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,616
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,824
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,158
• After-tax cash flow: $-130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 18,858
• Household income: $51,158
• Rent vs Own: 67.2% rent · 32.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1468.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.42%
• Current HPI: 291.38
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.59%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $199,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $225,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,616 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.