11 Holly Cir · Lake Monticello, VA 22963

$345,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2002 0.37 ac lot $156/sqft · at area comps Est $352k · at est. $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 4-bedroom, 3-bath Colonial offering over 2,300 finished square feet on a quiet street just outside the main gate of Lake Monticello, with full access to the community’s many amenities. The main level features bright, light-filled living spaces and an easy, comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs offers a wide hallway, two spacious bedrooms, and a full bath, all filled with natural light. The fully finished walk-out terrace level adds valuable living space, including a large bedroom, full bath, kitchenette, and generous recreation/living area—ideal for guests, extended stays, or flexible living needs. Step outside to enjoy the private wooded backyard, offering a peaceful natural setting rarely found so close to the gate. A pre-listing home inspection has already been completed and is available for buyer review, providing added confidence. Awonderful opportunity to enjoy modern comfort, privacy, and the Lake Monticello lifestyle.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 2002

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (715 students, 52% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 23% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,077 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.71%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,043
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -2.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Holly Cir	0.00mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,288 (+4%)	0mo	$345,000	$151	89
895 Jefferson Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,144 (-3%)	12mo	$409,000	$191	72
39 Overlook Cir	0.25mi	3/2.5	2,095 (-5%)	8mo	$311,000	$148	71
48 Jennings Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,434 (+10%)	4mo	$345,000	$142	70
927 Jefferson Dr Unit LM 279/1	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,227 (+1%)	1mo	$452,120	$203	69
875 Jefferson Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	2,267 (+3%)	15mo	$245,000	$108	68
1 Stonewall Rd	0.21mi	3/3.0	1,950 (-12%)	7mo	$283,056	$145	65
38 Edgewater Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,107 (-4%)	9mo	$415,000	$197	62
24 Tanglewood Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,001 (-9%)	1mo	$349,000	$174	54
28 Tanglewood Rd	0.56mi	2/1.5 (-1)	2,292 (+4%)	3mo	$320,000	$140	54
896 Jefferson Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,902 (-14%)	17mo	$307,000	$161	45
5 Whinchat Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,456 (+11%)	6mo	$335,000	$136	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-69,837
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-78,792
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22963

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,626/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,907

Max offer price $306,395

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-23	-5% $-121	+0% $-219	+5% $-316	+10% $-414
Rent	-10% $-426	-5% $-322	+0% $-219	+5% $-115	+10% $-11
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-131	base $-219	+0.5pp $-308	+1.0pp $-399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Glen Burnie Rd Palmyra, VA	3.0	2.5	2128	$2,850	$1.34	7d	1	0.66mi
1 Old Mill Ct Palmyra, VA	4.0	2.0	2082	$2,200	$1.06	45d	1	0.94mi
15 Tobacco Ter Palmyra, VA	3.0	2.5	2300	$3,300	$1.43	45d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 985-char remark

   Show marketing remark (985 chars)

   Updated 4-bedroom, 3-bath Colonial offering over 2,300 finished square feet on a quiet street just outside the main gate of Lake Monticello, with full access to the community’s many amenities. The main level features bright, light-filled living spaces and an easy, comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs offers a wide hallway, two spacious bedrooms, and a full bath, all filled with natural light. The fully finished walk-out terrace level adds valuable living space, including a large bedroom, full bath, kitchenette, and generous recreation/living area—ideal for guests, extended stays, or flexible living needs. Step outside to enjoy the private wooded backyard, offering a peaceful natural setting rarely found so close to the gate. A pre-listing home inspection has already been completed and is available for buyer review, providing added confidence. Awonderful opportunity to enjoy modern comfort, privacy, and the Lake Monticello lifestyle.

2. 2026-05-13
   price $345,000 985-char remark

   Show marketing remark (985 chars)

   Updated 4-bedroom, 3-bath Colonial offering over 2,300 finished square feet on a quiet street just outside the main gate of Lake Monticello, with full access to the community’s many amenities. The main level features bright, light-filled living spaces and an easy, comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs offers a wide hallway, two spacious bedrooms, and a full bath, all filled with natural light. The fully finished walk-out terrace level adds valuable living space, including a large bedroom, full bath, kitchenette, and generous recreation/living area—ideal for guests, extended stays, or flexible living needs. Step outside to enjoy the private wooded backyard, offering a peaceful natural setting rarely found so close to the gate. A pre-listing home inspection has already been completed and is available for buyer review, providing added confidence. Awonderful opportunity to enjoy modern comfort, privacy, and the Lake Monticello lifestyle.

3. 2026-04-20
   price $354,900 985-char remark

   Show marketing remark (985 chars)

   Updated 4-bedroom, 3-bath Colonial offering over 2,300 finished square feet on a quiet street just outside the main gate of Lake Monticello, with full access to the community’s many amenities. The main level features bright, light-filled living spaces and an easy, comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs offers a wide hallway, two spacious bedrooms, and a full bath, all filled with natural light. The fully finished walk-out terrace level adds valuable living space, including a large bedroom, full bath, kitchenette, and generous recreation/living area—ideal for guests, extended stays, or flexible living needs. Step outside to enjoy the private wooded backyard, offering a peaceful natural setting rarely found so close to the gate. A pre-listing home inspection has already been completed and is available for buyer review, providing added confidence. Awonderful opportunity to enjoy modern comfort, privacy, and the Lake Monticello lifestyle.

4. 2026-04-14
   price $363,900 985-char remark

   Show marketing remark (985 chars)

   Updated 4-bedroom, 3-bath Colonial offering over 2,300 finished square feet on a quiet street just outside the main gate of Lake Monticello, with full access to the community’s many amenities. The main level features bright, light-filled living spaces and an easy, comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs offers a wide hallway, two spacious bedrooms, and a full bath, all filled with natural light. The fully finished walk-out terrace level adds valuable living space, including a large bedroom, full bath, kitchenette, and generous recreation/living area—ideal for guests, extended stays, or flexible living needs. Step outside to enjoy the private wooded backyard, offering a peaceful natural setting rarely found so close to the gate. A pre-listing home inspection has already been completed and is available for buyer review, providing added confidence. Awonderful opportunity to enjoy modern comfort, privacy, and the Lake Monticello lifestyle.

5. 2026-03-24
   listed $374,900 Active 985-char remark

   Show marketing remark (985 chars)

   Updated 4-bedroom, 3-bath Colonial offering over 2,300 finished square feet on a quiet street just outside the main gate of Lake Monticello, with full access to the community’s many amenities. The main level features bright, light-filled living spaces and an easy, comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs offers a wide hallway, two spacious bedrooms, and a full bath, all filled with natural light. The fully finished walk-out terrace level adds valuable living space, including a large bedroom, full bath, kitchenette, and generous recreation/living area—ideal for guests, extended stays, or flexible living needs. Step outside to enjoy the private wooded backyard, offering a peaceful natural setting rarely found so close to the gate. A pre-listing home inspection has already been completed and is available for buyer review, providing added confidence. Awonderful opportunity to enjoy modern comfort, privacy, and the Lake Monticello lifestyle.

6. 2026-03-12
   historical $374,900 985-char remark

   Show marketing remark (985 chars)

   Updated 4-bedroom, 3-bath Colonial offering over 2,300 finished square feet on a quiet street just outside the main gate of Lake Monticello, with full access to the community’s many amenities. The main level features bright, light-filled living spaces and an easy, comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs offers a wide hallway, two spacious bedrooms, and a full bath, all filled with natural light. The fully finished walk-out terrace level adds valuable living space, including a large bedroom, full bath, kitchenette, and generous recreation/living area—ideal for guests, extended stays, or flexible living needs. Step outside to enjoy the private wooded backyard, offering a peaceful natural setting rarely found so close to the gate. A pre-listing home inspection has already been completed and is available for buyer review, providing added confidence. Awonderful opportunity to enjoy modern comfort, privacy, and the Lake Monticello lifestyle.

7. 2025-06-26
   soldstatus $364,000 Sold 1272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1272 chars)

   Tucked away in the Crofton section of Lake Monticello, just outside the main gate, this updated 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers the perfect balance of peace & privacy while still providing full access to all the incredible amenities Lake Monticello has to offer. Step inside to discover a thoughtfully designed, move-in ready interior. The main level features an inviting living & dining area, along with the spacious owner's suite, complete with an attached bath for added convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find 2 bright bedrooms w/ new hardwood flooring , along with a full bathroom. The walk-out terrace level expands your living space even further, offering a cozy living area, plenty of storage, a large laundry room with a sink, and a bonus primary bedroom with an en-suite bath. Outside, enjoy plenty of space to relax and connect with nature. Unwind on the covered front porch, or retreat to one of two private back decks—one off the kitchen and the other from the terrace level. The low-maintenance landscaping with plants throughout the front yard enhances the home's curb appeal and complements its serene setting. This home is ready for its next owner to enjoy comfort, convenience, and a peaceful lifestyle. Full list of updates in Docs.

8. 2025-05-28
   status Pending 1272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1272 chars)

   Tucked away in the Crofton section of Lake Monticello, just outside the main gate, this updated 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers the perfect balance of peace & privacy while still providing full access to all the incredible amenities Lake Monticello has to offer. Step inside to discover a thoughtfully designed, move-in ready interior. The main level features an inviting living & dining area, along with the spacious owner's suite, complete with an attached bath for added convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find 2 bright bedrooms w/ new hardwood flooring , along with a full bathroom. The walk-out terrace level expands your living space even further, offering a cozy living area, plenty of storage, a large laundry room with a sink, and a bonus primary bedroom with an en-suite bath. Outside, enjoy plenty of space to relax and connect with nature. Unwind on the covered front porch, or retreat to one of two private back decks—one off the kitchen and the other from the terrace level. The low-maintenance landscaping with plants throughout the front yard enhances the home's curb appeal and complements its serene setting. This home is ready for its next owner to enjoy comfort, convenience, and a peaceful lifestyle. Full list of updates in Docs.

9. 2025-04-24
   listed $369,000 Active 1272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1272 chars)

   Tucked away in the Crofton section of Lake Monticello, just outside the main gate, this updated 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers the perfect balance of peace & privacy while still providing full access to all the incredible amenities Lake Monticello has to offer. Step inside to discover a thoughtfully designed, move-in ready interior. The main level features an inviting living & dining area, along with the spacious owner's suite, complete with an attached bath for added convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find 2 bright bedrooms w/ new hardwood flooring , along with a full bathroom. The walk-out terrace level expands your living space even further, offering a cozy living area, plenty of storage, a large laundry room with a sink, and a bonus primary bedroom with an en-suite bath. Outside, enjoy plenty of space to relax and connect with nature. Unwind on the covered front porch, or retreat to one of two private back decks—one off the kitchen and the other from the terrace level. The low-maintenance landscaping with plants throughout the front yard enhances the home's curb appeal and complements its serene setting. This home is ready for its next owner to enjoy comfort, convenience, and a peaceful lifestyle. Full list of updates in Docs.

10. 2022-07-06
    soldstatus $264,000 Sold
11. 2022-07-06
    soldstatus $264,000
12. 2022-05-10
    status Pending
13. 2022-04-28
    listed $289,000 Active
14. 2017-12-01
    historical
15. 2017-11-09
    soldstatus $173,600
16. 2017-07-11
    listed $179,900
17. 2017-06-01
    listed $179,000
18. 2001-11-15
    listed $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,626 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,829 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$203/yr (+$17/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$2,626
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,526
• − Management: −$2,526
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$8,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,087
• After-tax cash flow: $-536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Monticello, VA
• County: Fluvanna County · 16,896 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 16,896
• Household income: $104,259
• Rent vs Own: 6.2% rent · 93.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 47.0

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.94%
• Current HPI: 158.3322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+187.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $345,000 CAAR
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $354,900 CAAR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $363,900 CAAR
• 2026-03-24 Listed $374,900 CAAR
• 2026-03-12 Coming Soon $374,900 CAAR
• 2025-06-26 Sold (MLS) $364,000 CAAR
• 2025-05-28 Pending — CAAR
• 2025-04-24 Listed $369,000 CAAR
• 2022-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $264,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-06 Sold (MLS) $264,000 CAAR
• 2022-05-10 Pending — CAAR
• 2022-04-28 Listed $289,000 CAAR
• 2017-12-01 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2017-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $173,600 Public Records
• 2017-07-11 Listed $179,900 CAAR
• 2017-06-01 Listed $179,000 CAAR
• 2001-11-15 Listed $119,900 CAAR

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,626 · +41.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.