16318 Towering Oaks Trl · Stagecoach, TX 77355

$148,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1999 0.36 ac lot $105/sqft · 22% below area Est $191k · 22% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to invest in a spacious home with a large lot and a huge backyard. The covered back patio offers a great spot for barbecuing and relaxation, while the 2-car carport provides convenient access. A large storage shed could easily be transformed into a workshop. The kitchen is a great size with a large island, and the split floor plan ensures ample privacy. Priced to sell, this home is ready for your personal touch. Schedule your appointment today! Motivated Seller!

Key facts

• 2-car carport
• Large lot
• Huge backyard

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• HUGE BACKYARD
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• 2-CAR CARPORT
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• KITCHEN ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.2% in Stagecoach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,560 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.05%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,761
• List price: $148,000
• Delta: -22.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31222 Wide Oak Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	9mo	$150,000	$112	78
31307 W Timberloch Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+11%)	8mo	$195,000	$125	67
16218 Evergreen Timbers	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+11%)	6mo	$209,995	$134	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $6,980
• Equity at exit: $22,067

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $46,128
• Equity at exit: $12,796

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,699/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,367

Max offer price $148,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24836 Sugar Pine Cone St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,950	$1.30	17d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $148,000 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $148,000 Pending 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $148,000 Pending 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $148,000 Pending 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $148,000 Pending 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   status $148,000 Pending 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $148,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $148,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-04-16
   listed $160,000 Active 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   Great opportunity to invest in a spacious home with a large lot and a huge backyard. The covered back patio offers a great spot for barbecuing and relaxation, while the 2-car carport provides convenient access. A large storage shed could easily be transformed into a workshop. The kitchen is a great size with a large island, and the split floor plan ensures ample privacy. Priced to sell, this home is ready for your personal touch. Schedule your appointment today! Motivated Seller!

10. 2021-03-29
    soldstatus
11. 2021-03-25
    soldstatus Sold 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Great home on a nice size lot with plenty of room in the huge backyard. . Covered back patio to enjoy barbecuing and just relaxing! 2 car carport close to the house. Large storage shed that could be a great workshop. Recently improvements: New water heater, carpet. Great size kitchen with large island. All bedrooms are a great size and its a split floor plan. Make your appointment today.

12. 2021-03-24
    status Pending 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Great home on a nice size lot with plenty of room in the huge backyard. . Covered back patio to enjoy barbecuing and just relaxing! 2 car carport close to the house. Large storage shed that could be a great workshop. Recently improvements: New water heater, carpet. Great size kitchen with large island. All bedrooms are a great size and its a split floor plan. Make your appointment today.

13. 2021-03-13
    status Option Pending 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Great home on a nice size lot with plenty of room in the huge backyard. . Covered back patio to enjoy barbecuing and just relaxing! 2 car carport close to the house. Large storage shed that could be a great workshop. Recently improvements: New water heater, carpet. Great size kitchen with large island. All bedrooms are a great size and its a split floor plan. Make your appointment today.

14. 2021-03-08
    listed $145,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Great home on a nice size lot with plenty of room in the huge backyard. . Covered back patio to enjoy barbecuing and just relaxing! 2 car carport close to the house. Large storage shed that could be a great workshop. Recently improvements: New water heater, carpet. Great size kitchen with large island. All bedrooms are a great size and its a split floor plan. Make your appointment today.

15. 2019-02-07
    historical
16. 2018-11-25
    status Active
17. 2018-11-25
    status Pending
18. 2018-11-14
    status Option Pending
19. 2018-10-16
    listed $135,000 Active
20. 2017-06-01
    soldstatus
21. 2017-05-31
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2017-05-03
    status Pending
23. 2017-04-24
    status Option Pending
24. 2017-04-17
    price $94,500
25. 2017-03-20
    listed $98,500 Active
26. 2012-09-11
    soldstatus
27. 2012-09-11
    soldstatus
28. 2012-08-21
    historical
29. 2012-07-10
    listed $69,900
30. 2006-01-27
    soldstatus
31. 2005-07-01
    historical
32. 2005-02-26
    listed $59,900
33. 2001-02-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,699 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,708 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$2,699
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable income: $3,728
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$895
• After-tax cash flow: $4,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stagecoach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #17937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+167.1% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2021-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-03-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-08 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2019-02-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-11-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-11-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-11-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-10-16 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2017-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-05-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-04-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-04-17 Price Changed $94,500 HARMLS
• 2017-03-20 Listed $98,500 HARMLS
• 2012-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-09-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-08-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-07-10 Listed $69,900 HARMLS
• 2006-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-02-26 Listed $59,900 HARMLS
• 2001-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,699 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.