11718 Santa Fe Trl · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2002 9,430 sqft lot Est $294k · at est. $16/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home located in the desirable Santa Fe Trails. You don't want to miss this well maintained, nicely updated 3bed/2bath home with NO BACK NEIGHBORS! Sits on one of the largest lots in this neighborhood and ready for that pool you've always wanted, covered back porch which is perfect for the hot summer days. Plenty of space inside and out for entertaining. High ceilings throughout, crown molding, granite countertops, custom cabinets. The Kitchen opens to the living room for that open floor plan feeling. You don't want to miss out on this one!

Key facts

• New hvac
• Natural light
• Large lot

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• LARGE LOT
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• NEW HVAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($132k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $295k).
• Cap rate 50.9% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William F Barnett El (math 59% / reading 46%, grade C-, #720 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 646 students, 59% FRL); Santa Fe H S (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 1,369 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $83k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 50.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 159.37%
• DSCR: 8.09
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11814 Santa Fe Trl	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+2%)	7mo	$278,000	$176	84
4238 Chisholm Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+0%)	5mo	$295,000	$190	83
11806 Oregon Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-7%)	2mo	$299,900	$207	80
11731 Santa Fe Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-12%)	4mo	$257,500	$190	74
11837 12th St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,639 (+6%)	7mo	$317,500	$194	71
11826 Old Spanish Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,374 (-11%)	10mo	$269,999	$197	65
11811 15th St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,511 (-2%)	13mo	$245,000	$162	64
11811 Santa Fe Trl	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,747 (+13%)	14mo	$279,950	$160	62
4433 Avenue L	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-3%)	10mo	$289,900	$193	60
3721 Avenue E	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-10%)	4mo	$332,500	$238	48
4118 Eaton Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,778 (+15%)	11mo	$299,000	$168	44
11905 15th St	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (-12%)	10mo	$200,000	$146	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.88×
• Total profit: $651,263
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.78×
• Total profit: $1,468,312
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,723 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$555 /mo · $6,660/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,512
• Net cashflow: $10,970

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,837

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11,137	-5% $11,054	+0% $10,970	+5% $10,887	+10% $10,803
Rent	-10% $9,649	-5% $10,310	+0% $10,970	+5% $11,631	+10% $12,291
Rate	-1.0pp $11,119	-0.5pp $11,045	base $10,970	+0.5pp $10,894	+1.0pp $10,816

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	23d	1	0.35mi
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	45d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $295,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,660 · $555/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,660 · $555/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $200,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$6,660
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$16,054
• − Management: −$16,054
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable income: $135,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$32,432
• After-tax cash flow: $99,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+34.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Coming Soon $295,000 HARMLS
• 2019-06-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-05-04 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2002-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,660 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.