221 E Montauk Hwy · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$849,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1996 1.10 ac lot $461/sqft · 23% below area Est $1104k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 221 E Montauk Highway, a rare opportunity in the heart of Hampton Bays offering exceptional upside for investors, builders, or end-users ready to create their vision in the Hamptons. Set on a full acre in an R20 zoning district, this property presents the potential for subdivision or redevelopment. The home also features a large basement with egress already in place, offering potential for expanded use or flexible living configurations. The existing 5-bedroom, 3-bath home spans approximately 1,840 square feet (not including the basement) and features hardwood floors, a fireplace, and generous living space. While the home is in need of renovation it provides a footprint and layout

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• R20 zoning district
• Large basement

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• R20 ZONING DISTRICT
• LARGE BASEMENT
• IN-GROUND POOL
• EXPANSIVE GROUNDS
• PROVEN RENTAL HISTORY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $849k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($41k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $849k).
• Recommended offer: $836k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $11,273/mo this rent would consume 101% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($836k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $849k implies a 2473% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $836,265 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.32%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,103,523
• List price: $849,000
• Delta: -23.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Pepi Ct	0.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,024 (+10%)	6mo	$1,270,000	$627	50
8 E Canal Ct	0.42mi	5/2.0	2,016 (+10%)	21mo	$875,000	$434	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $140,445
• Equity at exit: $126,589

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $674,532
• Equity at exit: $73,406

Cash invested: $237,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,452
• Tax from tax record: −$669 /mo · $8,025/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,367
• Net cashflow: $3,431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,930

Max offer price $849,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,911	-5% $3,671	+0% $3,431	+5% $3,191	+10% $2,950
Rent	-10% $2,540	-5% $2,986	+0% $3,431	+5% $3,876	+10% $4,321
Rate	-1.0pp $3,858	-0.5pp $3,647	base $3,431	+0.5pp $3,211	+1.0pp $2,987

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,250
• Closing costs: $25,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Stuart Ct Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.5	2168	$20,000	$9.23	25d	1	0.22mi
10 Ginny Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2596	$30,000	$11.56	25d	1	0.48mi
48 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2400	$12,500	$5.21	19d	1	0.62mi
9 Tramposh Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2092	$10,000	$4.78	5d	1	0.66mi
10 Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1560	$45,000	$28.85	25d	1	0.86mi
2 W Hillover Rd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.0	2000	$25,000	$12.50	19d	1	0.97mi
47 School St Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1700	$25,000	$14.71	44d	1	0.98mi
71 Old Canoe Place Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2300	$20,000	$8.70	44d	1	1.03mi
8 Westerly Ct Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2300	$25,000	$10.87	25d	1	1.04mi
8 Wakeman Ct Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1932	$11,000	$5.69	25d	1	1.04mi
6 Peconic Rd Southampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2500	$38,000	$15.20	44d	1	1.22mi
23 N Westbury Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2212	$12,000	$5.42	25d	1	1.23mi
30 Squires Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	5.0	3.0	2220	$25,000	$11.26	25d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $849,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $849,000 Active
3. 1996-06-11
   soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,025 · $669/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,187 · $932/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,162/yr (+$263/mo · 39.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $135,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,557
• − Property taxes: −$8,025
• − Insurance: −$4,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,822
• − Management: −$10,822
• − Depreciation: −$24,698
• Taxable income: $29,106
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,985
• After-tax cash flow: $34,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2472.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $849,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $8,025 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.