10185 99th St SE · Ludden, ND 58474

$169,853

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,916 sqft · SingleFamily · 145 Days on market

Built 1952 18 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Ample storage space
• Prime hunting
• Work shop

Tags

• ABUNDANCE OF WILDLIFE
• PRIME HUNTING
• AMPLE STORAGE SPACE
• WORK SHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Private well water; Water available; Electricity available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Built with a basement
• Exterior features: Storage space/outbuilding; Rain gutters; Fire pit; Garden; Irregular lot; Gravel road frontage on a county road; Approximately 17.86 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; Two three-quarter bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Propane heating; Ceiling fans for cooling; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Basement with concrete floor, partial finish and storage space; 12 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($773/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#256 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oakes 41 (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #13 of 53 in ND (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oakes Elementary School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #65 of 236 statewide, top 37%, 257 students, 20% FRL); Oakes High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #30 of 144 statewide, top 22%, 234 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Dickey County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $170k implies a 579% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $135,902 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.62%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-23,502
• Equity at exit: $25,326

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,512
• Equity at exit: $14,686

Cash invested: $47,559 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58474

• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $573/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $169,853

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $112	+0% $64	+5% $16	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-43	-5% $11	+0% $64	+5% $118	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $108	base $64	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,463
• Closing costs: $5,096
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,853 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,853 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,853 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,853 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,853 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,853 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,853 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,853 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,853 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,853 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,853 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,853 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,853 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,853 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,853 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,853 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $169,853
18. 2026-02-05
    price $179,454
19. 2026-01-27
    listed $190,000 Active
20. 2025-09-16
    price $194,000
21. 2025-08-27
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $573 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,092/yr (+$91/mo · 190.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,514
• − Property taxes: −$573
• − Insurance: −$849
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − Depreciation: −$4,941
• Taxable loss: −$2,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$523
• After-tax cash flow: $1,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakes 41
• NCES district ID: 3814500
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $52,885
• Composite: 42.23/100
• National rank: #3282
• State rank: #13 of 53 in ND

Livability — Ludden

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #18164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,739

Population outlook (Dickey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,012 people
• By 2030: 4,927 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 4,851 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 4,924 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 5,832 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 7,513 · +49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 23% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dickey

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.9% · R 75.1% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.9pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+46.8 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.87%
• Current HPI: 120.8403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+579.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $169,853 GNMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $179,454 GNMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $190,000 GNMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $194,000 GNMLS
• 2025-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $573 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.