16963 Winchester Ave · Hazel Crest, IL 60429

$114,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 194 Days on market

Built 1920 6,250 sqft lot Est $227k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ATTENTION INVESTORS & REHABBERS! Check out this great 2 story home has a lot of potential. House has some fire and water damage. Home sold AS-IS, where-is. Bring a flashlight to the showing and entry with caution. MOTIVATED SELLER. Seller will review all offers.

Key facts

• 6,250 sq ft lot
• Listed 193 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water (Lake Michigan source); Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Two-story
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Built before 1978; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 75 x 124; Lot smaller than 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (12 x 16)
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total; Master bedroom (second level, 12 x 10); Bedroom (second level, 10 x 10); Bedroom (second level, 11 x 10); Bedroom (second level, 11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Partially finished full basement with walk-out access
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 9.0% in Hazel Crest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#229 in IL, #4,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $115k implies a 1049% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.65%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16929 Wood St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,699 (+1%)	7mo	$236,000	$139	78
16777 Trapet Ave	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,644 (-2%)	9mo	$240,000	$146	73
1722 168th St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-4%)	1mo	$210,000	$131	72
16802 Anthony Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,682 (+0%)	9mo	$226,600	$135	69
16742 Crane Ave	0.48mi	4/1.0	1,683 (+0%)	6mo	$201,000	$119	68
17065 Crane Ave	0.40mi	4/1.0	1,500 (-11%)	0mo	$203,000	$135	59
16460 Wood St	0.61mi	4/2.5	1,600 (-5%)	8mo	$227,500	$142	55
16533 Dixie Hwy	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+7%)	13mo	$214,000	$119	53
16454 Paulina St	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-11%)	2mo	$249,900	$167	49
16427 Wolcott Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,600 (-5%)	7mo	$174,900	$109	47
16907 Orchard Ridge Ave	0.50mi	4/1.5	1,444 (-14%)	9mo	$181,900	$126	44
17225 Laflin Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,550 (-8%)	10mo	$216,000	$139	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $28,817
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $86,781
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60429

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,322 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$443 /mo · $5,315/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,384

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,120	-5% $774	+0% $741	+5% $709	+10% $676
Rent	-10% $558	-5% $650	+0% $741	+5% $833	+10% $925
Rate	-1.0pp $799	-0.5pp $771	base $741	+0.5pp $712	+1.0pp $681

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2107 171st St Unit 2107 Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1158	$2,300	$1.99	0d	1	0.31mi
2173 171st St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1159	$2,350	$2.03	0d	1	0.38mi
16751 Crane Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	0d	1	0.44mi
16901 Orchard Ridge Ave Hazel Crest, IL	4.0	2.0	1406	$2,700	$1.92	0d	1	0.50mi
17561 Hillside Ave Homewood, IL	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,300	$1.96	0d	1	0.91mi
17561 Hillside Ave Homewood, IL	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,500	$2.13	17d	1	0.91mi
2223 Hawthorne Rd Homewood, IL	3.0	2.0	1552	$2,300	$1.48	25d	1	1.01mi
2722 Larkspur Ln Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1441	$2,650	$1.84	13d	1	1.33mi
17306 Holmes Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,195	$1.43	5d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,900 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $114,900 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Contingent - No Showings 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Contingent - No Showings 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Contingent - No Showings 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,900 Contingent - No Showings 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Contingent - No Showings 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Contingent - No Showings 175 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Contingent - No Showings 174 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Contingent - No Showings 173 DOM
16. 2026-03-23
    historical Contingent - No Showings
17. 2026-03-13
    status Active
18. 2025-12-15
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
19. 2025-12-10
    historical
20. 2025-12-03
    listed $114,900 Active
21. 2023-03-10
    historical
22. 2023-03-10
    status Temporarily No Showings
23. 2023-02-16
    historical
24. 2023-01-17
    status Active
25. 2022-12-31
    historical Contingent - No Showings
26. 2022-12-01
    status Active
27. 2022-08-18
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
28. 2022-07-08
    price
29. 2022-06-30
    price
30. 2022-05-25
    status Active
31. 2022-05-05
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
32. 2022-04-14
    listed Active
33. 2018-10-17
    soldstatus $10,000 Closed Sale 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    ATTENTION INVESTORS & REHABBERS! Check out this great 2 story home has a lot of potential. House has some fire and water damage. Home sold AS-IS, where-is. Bring a flashlight to the showing and entry with caution. MOTIVATED SELLER. Seller will review all offers.

34. 2018-10-05
    historical Contingent 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    ATTENTION INVESTORS & REHABBERS! Check out this great 2 story home has a lot of potential. House has some fire and water damage. Home sold AS-IS, where-is. Bring a flashlight to the showing and entry with caution. MOTIVATED SELLER. Seller will review all offers.

35. 2018-09-18
    status Reactivated 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    ATTENTION INVESTORS & REHABBERS! Check out this great 2 story home has a lot of potential. House has some fire and water damage. Home sold AS-IS, where-is. Bring a flashlight to the showing and entry with caution. MOTIVATED SELLER. Seller will review all offers.

36. 2018-09-03
    historical Contingent 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    ATTENTION INVESTORS & REHABBERS! Check out this great 2 story home has a lot of potential. House has some fire and water damage. Home sold AS-IS, where-is. Bring a flashlight to the showing and entry with caution. MOTIVATED SELLER. Seller will review all offers.

37. 2018-08-28
    listed $18,000 New 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    ATTENTION INVESTORS & REHABBERS! Check out this great 2 story home has a lot of potential. House has some fire and water damage. Home sold AS-IS, where-is. Bring a flashlight to the showing and entry with caution. MOTIVATED SELLER. Seller will review all offers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,315 · $443/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,315 · $443/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$5,315
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,230
• − Management: −$2,230
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $7,741
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,858
• After-tax cash flow: $7,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Hazel Crest

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #4242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hazel Crest, IL
• City population: 14,602
• Population (ZIP): 14,602

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 83% White 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 282.3552
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+538.3% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-15 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Listed $114,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-10 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-10 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-16 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-17 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-31 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-01 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-18 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-08 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-30 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-25 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-05 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-14 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-17 Sold (MLS) $10,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-05 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-18 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-03 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-28 Listed $18,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,315 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.