8031 Canyon St · Houston, TX 77051

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,255 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 2017 5,523 sqft lot $171/sqft · 12% below area Est $244k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to charming 4 bedrooms/2 full baths. This property features a convenient parking pad and accessibility features for easy entry. Step inside to find a welcoming family room combined with open-concept dining area and kitchen. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops and appliances. Home features all tile flooring, spacious closets, utility room inside. Easy access to 610 Loop and 288, close to the Texas Medical center, NRG and downtown.

Key facts

• 5,523 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2017

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,238/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.55%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,530
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -11.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8230 Woodward St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,347 (+7%)	10mo	$155,000	$115	61
8017 Lawler St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (+4%)	14mo	$98,000	$75	59
8436 Lawler St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (+6%)	9mo	$177,900	$133	56
3454 Bacon St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,278 (+2%)	11mo	$255,000	$200	54
7634 Lady St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,270 (+1%)	12mo	$120,000	$94	53
3536 Rebecca St	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,332 (+6%)	4mo	$240,000	$180	50
3438 Goodhope St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,236 (-2%)	12mo	$154,900	$125	49
8324 Grandview St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (+13%)	14mo	$244,900	$173	49
3802 Rebecca St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,348 (+7%)	4mo	$189,000	$140	46
8122 Corinth St Unit B	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,094 (-13%)	12mo	$286,000	$261	46
3417 Bacon St	0.66mi	4/1.0	1,150 (-8%)	12mo	$135,000	$117	41
3433 Bacon St	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	14mo	$194,999	$139	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $132,577
• Equity at exit: $193,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.49×
• Total profit: $390,546
• Equity at exit: $417,698

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,475/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,013

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $239	+0% $178	+5% $117	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $1	-5% $89	+0% $178	+5% $266	+10% $355
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $233	base $178	+0.5pp $122	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	44d	1	0.35mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	20d	1	0.45mi
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	3d	1	0.46mi
7806 Comal St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	44d	1	0.51mi
8181 El Mundo St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1241	$2,041	$1.64	25d	18	0.69mi
8181 El Mundo St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1356	$2,262	$1.67	0d	47	0.69mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,253	$3.84	0d	1	0.75mi
3732 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1727	$2,350	$1.36	25d	1	0.97mi
3846 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1833	$2,300	$1.25	44d	1	1.02mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	44d	1	1.04mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	17d	1	1.05mi
7379 Ardmore St Unit 1303 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,967	$1.36	44d	1	1.08mi
7379 Ardmore St Unit 1303 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,967	$1.36	22d	1	1.08mi
7373 Ardmore St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$1,887	$1.72	5d	24	1.10mi
7321 Conley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,025	$1.35	21d	1	1.19mi
7321 Conley St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,025	$1.08	21d	1	1.19mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	0d	3	1.20mi
3360 Alice St Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,172	$1.02	11d	1	1.24mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	25d	1	1.25mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	13d	1	1.25mi
3360 Alice St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,167	$1.01	0d	1	1.25mi
3360 Alice St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,172	$1.02	12d	1	1.25mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	44d	1	1.26mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	44d	1	1.26mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	12d	1	1.29mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	13d	1	1.29mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	15d	1	1.30mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	44d	1	1.30mi
2117 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1354	$1,579	$1.17	44d	1	1.35mi
2117 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1354	$1,579	$1.17	20d	1	1.35mi
2119 Naomi St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1553	$2,500	$1.61	44d	1	1.39mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	44d	1	1.40mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	25d	1	1.41mi
7032 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,850	$2.34	44d	1	1.44mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $215,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-02-21
    listed $215,000 Active 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Welcome to charming 4 bedrooms/2 full baths. This property features a convenient parking pad and accessibility features for easy entry. Step inside to find a welcoming family room combined with open-concept dining area and kitchen. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops and appliances. Home features all tile flooring, spacious closets, utility room inside. Easy access to 610 Loop and 288, close to the Texas Medical center, NRG and downtown.

13. 2026-01-05
    historical $1,900
14. 2025-09-23
    listed $1,900
15. 2017-02-01
    soldstatus Sold 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    This is an affordable Mayberry Homes' The Elizabeth Floor Plan under the Exquisite Series Collection. The future homeowner of this property will have a energy efficient home, with their option of durable countertops, designer ceramic tiling, contemporary carpet, spacious cabinetry and MORE! Schedule your appointment TODAY!!!

16. 2016-07-27
    status Pending 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    This is an affordable Mayberry Homes' The Elizabeth Floor Plan under the Exquisite Series Collection. The future homeowner of this property will have a energy efficient home, with their option of durable countertops, designer ceramic tiling, contemporary carpet, spacious cabinetry and MORE! Schedule your appointment TODAY!!!

17. 2016-07-19
    price $120,000 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    This is an affordable Mayberry Homes' The Elizabeth Floor Plan under the Exquisite Series Collection. The future homeowner of this property will have a energy efficient home, with their option of durable countertops, designer ceramic tiling, contemporary carpet, spacious cabinetry and MORE! Schedule your appointment TODAY!!!

18. 2016-07-05
    price $115,000 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    This is an affordable Mayberry Homes' The Elizabeth Floor Plan under the Exquisite Series Collection. The future homeowner of this property will have a energy efficient home, with their option of durable countertops, designer ceramic tiling, contemporary carpet, spacious cabinetry and MORE! Schedule your appointment TODAY!!!

19. 2016-05-27
    listed $169,000 Active 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    This is an affordable Mayberry Homes' The Elizabeth Floor Plan under the Exquisite Series Collection. The future homeowner of this property will have a energy efficient home, with their option of durable countertops, designer ceramic tiling, contemporary carpet, spacious cabinetry and MORE! Schedule your appointment TODAY!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,475 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,475 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$4,475
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,291
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$310
• After-tax cash flow: $2,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+27.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed for Rent $1,900 HARMLS
• 2017-02-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-07-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-07-19 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2016-07-05 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2016-05-27 Listed $169,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,475 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.