10700 Underwood Ave · Flagler Estates, FL 32145

$279,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,998 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2001 1.14 ac lot $140/sqft · 12% below area Est $315k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THE LAND 1.14 acres of mature Florida woodland. No subdivision. No HOA board. No lot rent bleeding your equity. The trees block the view of anyone who'd bother you. That's not landscaping -- that's a perimeter. THE HOUSE Four bedrooms. Two full baths. Nearly 2,000 sq ft with vaulted ceilings. Open layout. Galley kitchen -- dark wood cabinets, black countertops, recessed LED lighting. Master bath: dual vanity, garden tub, updated tile. Walk-in closets. Dedicated laundry. THE WORK -- DONE New metal roof. New AC. New LVP floors throughout. Fresh paint. Updated fixtures. This is the exit ramp off the money pit highway. You move in and exhale. THE LOCATION St. Johns County -- one of the best in Florida. Atlantic coast 30 min east. St. Augustine nearby. Jacksonville accessible. Comparable new builds on 1+ acre start at . This one won't sit.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Fresh paint
• New lvp floors

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW AC
• NEW LVP FLOORS
• FRESH PAINT
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• ST JOHNS COUNTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (35.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.0% in Flagler Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#763 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $279k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,399 (35.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,321
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -11.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5121 Jonathan St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,798 (-10%)	19mo	$276,800	$154	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $133,694
• Equity at exit: $251,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $407,753
• Equity at exit: $542,036

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32145

• Home prices YoY: 19.1%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,794 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $676/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,155

Max offer price $228,672

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-127	-5% $-206	+0% $-285	+5% $-364	+10% $-443
Rent	-10% $-427	-5% $-356	+0% $-285	+5% $-214	+10% $-143
Rate	-1.0pp $-144	-0.5pp $-214	base $-285	+0.5pp $-357	+1.0pp $-431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-03-31
   listed $279,000 Active 863-char remark

   Show marketing remark (863 chars)

   THE LAND 1.14 acres of mature Florida woodland. No subdivision. No HOA board. No lot rent bleeding your equity. The trees block the view of anyone who'd bother you. That's not landscaping -- that's a perimeter. THE HOUSE Four bedrooms. Two full baths. Nearly 2,000 sq ft with vaulted ceilings. Open layout. Galley kitchen -- dark wood cabinets, black countertops, recessed LED lighting. Master bath: dual vanity, garden tub, updated tile. Walk-in closets. Dedicated laundry. THE WORK -- DONE New metal roof. New AC. New LVP floors throughout. Fresh paint. Updated fixtures. This is the exit ramp off the money pit highway. You move in and exhale. THE LOCATION St. Johns County -- one of the best in Florida. Atlantic coast 30 min east. St. Augustine nearby. Jacksonville accessible. Comparable new builds on 1+ acre start at . This one won't sit.

2. 2021-06-21
   soldstatus $101,600
3. 2016-06-13
   soldstatus $79,300
4. 2012-07-31
   historical 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   VERY NICE LARGE DW ON 1.25 ACRES. GARDEN TUB, HIS & HER SINKS AND WALK IN SHOWER IN MASTER BATH. CARPET AND TILE IN WHOLE HOUSE. LARGE DECK ON REAR OR HOUSE.

5. 2012-07-30
   soldstatus $35,000 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   VERY NICE LARGE DW ON 1.25 ACRES. GARDEN TUB, HIS & HER SINKS AND WALK IN SHOWER IN MASTER BATH. CARPET AND TILE IN WHOLE HOUSE. LARGE DECK ON REAR OR HOUSE.

6. 2012-07-27
   soldstatus $35,000
7. 2012-01-06
   listed $49,900 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   VERY NICE LARGE DW ON 1.25 ACRES. GARDEN TUB, HIS & HER SINKS AND WALK IN SHOWER IN MASTER BATH. CARPET AND TILE IN WHOLE HOUSE. LARGE DECK ON REAR OR HOUSE.

8. 2012-01-05
   listed $49,900
9. 2006-12-13
   soldstatus $128,800
10. 2004-12-13
    soldstatus $82,700
11. 2004-05-26
    soldstatus $32,000
12. 2004-02-09
    soldstatus $75,000
13. 2001-07-27
    soldstatus $6,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,316 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,640/yr (+$137/mo · 242.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$676
• − Insurance: −$2,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,722
• − Management: −$1,722
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$8,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,047
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Flagler Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #16863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagler Estates, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,750

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.24%
• Current HPI: 250.8035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4192.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $279,000 realMLS
• 2021-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $101,600 Public Records
• 2016-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $79,300 Public Records
• 2012-07-31 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2012-07-30 Sold (MLS) $35,000 realMLS
• 2012-07-27 Sold (MLS) $35,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2012-01-06 Listed $49,900 realMLS
• 2012-01-05 Listed $49,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2006-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $128,800 Public Records
• 2004-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $82,700 Public Records
• 2004-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $676 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.