15045 SW 26th Ln · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 10,125 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Stucco exterior frame home at an affordable price! Split plan three bedroom / two bathroom with attached finished one car garage that is equipped with a garage door opener. The kitchen offers Granite counter tops with upgraded cabinets. Stainless steel appliance package which includes the range, microwave, dishwasher and refrigerator. Tile in the bathrooms, Ceiling fans and more. Great location to shopping, activities, medical facilities and restaurants.

Key facts

• Ceiling fans
• Stucco exterior
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• STUCCO EXTERIOR
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• UPGRADED CABINETS
• TILE IN THE BATHROOMS
• CEILING FANS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R1; Lot approximately 0.23 acres (75 x 135); Permit number 123456; Builder-provided living area and building area measurements available
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1-car garage (12x20); Carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; New construction (projected completion June 15, 2026); South-facing
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Brooks Construction (model JC1)
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Cleared lot; Corner lot; County location; Limerock road surface; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Split bedroom floor plan; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closets; Inside utility room; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

🏗️ New construction. The $209,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $232,848.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $180,852 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.32%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14689 SW 30th Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,232 (0%)	8mo	$210,900	$171	80
14663 SW 30th Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,232 (0%)	9mo	$205,900	$167	79
3314 SW 144 Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,211 (-2%)	13mo	$235,000	$194	63
14386 SW 26th Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,127 (-8%)	14mo	$225,000	$200	61
15228 SW 16th St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+3%)	8mo	$237,900	$188	57
2329 SW 143rd Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+12%)	12mo	$259,900	$188	55
14346 SW 30th Pl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,399 (+14%)	4mo	$245,000	$175	53
2388 SW 143rd Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,058 (-14%)	16mo	$199,900	$189	48
14175 SW 30th Street Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,127 (-8%)	15mo	$215,000	$191	46
15422 SW 30 St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,089 (-12%)	10mo	$224,000	$206	38
14140 SW 19th Pl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,399 (+14%)	17mo	$239,900	$171	34
3290 SW 151st Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,066 (-14%)	15mo	$212,995	$200	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-49,196
• Equity at exit: $34,718

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-57,525
• Equity at exit: $20,132

Cash invested: $65,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,221
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$291 /mo · $3,493/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,037

Max offer price $206,740

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,212
• Closing costs: $6,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14665 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,900	$1.55	14d	1	0.28mi
14445 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	21d	1	0.33mi
15388 SW 26th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,800	$1.48	13d	1	0.75mi
14070 SW 17th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,500	$1.08	21d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $209,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,493
• − Insurance: −$1,164
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$6,774
• Taxable loss: −$6,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,499
• After-tax cash flow: $-667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This under-construction home is in excellent condition with good finishes and a great location. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be completed with minor landscaping and curb appeal improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint improves curb appeal and resale value
• Both Installing new flooring in bathrooms — Granite countertops and new flooring enhance resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint improves curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Installing new flooring in bathrooms — Granite countertops and new flooring enhance resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Park, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $209,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid