27250 Murrieta Rd #364 · Menifee, CA 92586

$176,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1989 $154/sqft · 13% above area Est $155k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Some homes are houses. This one is a lifestyle. Step inside and feel the difference right away — new flooring, fresh paint, and updated bathrooms give the space a clean, contemporary feel that's ready for you from day one. The primary suite truly earns the word "retreat, " with a luxurious ensuite and a closet that doesn't ask you to compromise. Plantation shutters frame every room beautifully while doing the practical work of keeping things private and temperate. Outside, your fully fenced yard — newly gated for private driveway access — is a quiet corner of the world just for you. Whether it's morning coffee in the garden or a weekend gathering with neighbors, the space delivers. The insulated 2-car garage handles the extras, washer/dryer included. And beyond your front door? Sun Meadows — where amenities read like a resort brochure: pool, spa, sauna, fitness center, tennis, pickleball, billiards, shuffleboard, and a social calendar full of reasons to say yes. Located within Sun Meadows, one of Menifee’s most amenity-rich senior communities, residents enjoy access to a clubhouse, gym, pool, spa, sauna, tennis and pickleball courts, billiards and card rooms, shuffleboard, and a full calendar of social activities.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $176k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $176k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.6% in Menifee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,272/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1163% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.66%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,171
• List price: $176,000
• Delta: 13.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27250 Murrieta Rd #378	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+1%)	3mo	$90,000	$78	96
27250 Murrieta Rd #216	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+14%)	2mo	$110,000	$85	76
27250 Murrieta Rd #266	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	9mo	$134,000	$112	76
27250 Murrieta Rd #257	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,272 (+12%)	10mo	$178,000	$140	72
27250 Murrieta Rd #280	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,268 (+11%)	8mo	$179,900	$142	69
27250 Murrieta Rd #191	0.00mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (+12%)	8mo	$115,000	$90	69
27250 Murrieta Rd Spc 214	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+14%)	12mo	$199,900	$154	58
27701 Murrieta #247	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+10%)	3mo	$70,000	$56	54
27601 Sun City Blvd 136	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	8mo	$155,000	$129	52
27601 Sun City Blvd #248	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-5%)	12mo	$70,000	$65	50
27601 Sun City Blvd #63	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+10%)	10mo	$134,000	$107	41
27601 Sun City Blvd #192	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+14%)	10mo	$144,000	$111	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $27,504
• Equity at exit: $26,242

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $118,412
• Equity at exit: $15,217

Cash invested: $49,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92586

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,272 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$923
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $390/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,302

Max offer price $176,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,000
• Closing costs: $5,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29196 Crestone Dr Sun City, CA	2.0	2.0	1393	$1,995	$1.43	19d	1	0.30mi
27305 Uppercrest Ct Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,353	$1.79	22d	1	0.53mi
25615 Union Hill Dr Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,550	$1.89	15d	1	0.66mi
25861 McCall Blvd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1378	$2,350	$1.71	2d	1	0.83mi
26156 Birkdale Rd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1285	$2,000	$1.56	2d	1	0.91mi
26217 Birkdale Rd Menifee, CA	1.0	1.0	876	$2,150	$2.45	2d	1	0.94mi
28375 Paseo Grande Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1285	$2,395	$1.86	2d	1	0.96mi
28323 Murrieta Rd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1098	$2,350	$2.14	20d	1	1.09mi
27051 Sun City Blvd Unit 1 Menifee, CA	2.0	1.0	729	$1,975	$2.71	2d	1	1.10mi
28244 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	2d	1	1.34mi
28461 Portsmouth Dr Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,685	$1.85	2d	1	1.37mi
28301 Encanto Dr Unit 10 Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	17d	1	1.37mi
28301 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,025	$2.32	2d	5	1.45mi
28082 Bavaria Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,250	$2.11	2d	1	1.45mi
27709 Camino Donaire Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1317	$3,000	$2.28	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $176,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $176,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $176,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $176,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $176,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $176,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $176,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $176,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $176,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $176,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $176,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $176,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $176,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-01-13
    listed $176,000 Active 1275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1275 chars)

    Some homes are houses. This one is a lifestyle. Step inside and feel the difference right away — new flooring, fresh paint, and updated bathrooms give the space a clean, contemporary feel that's ready for you from day one. The primary suite truly earns the word "retreat, " with a luxurious ensuite and a closet that doesn't ask you to compromise. Plantation shutters frame every room beautifully while doing the practical work of keeping things private and temperate. Outside, your fully fenced yard — newly gated for private driveway access — is a quiet corner of the world just for you. Whether it's morning coffee in the garden or a weekend gathering with neighbors, the space delivers. The insulated 2-car garage handles the extras, washer/dryer included. And beyond your front door? Sun Meadows — where amenities read like a resort brochure: pool, spa, sauna, fitness center, tennis, pickleball, billiards, shuffleboard, and a social calendar full of reasons to say yes. Located within Sun Meadows, one of Menifee’s most amenity-rich senior communities, residents enjoy access to a clubhouse, gym, pool, spa, sauna, tennis and pickleball courts, billiards and card rooms, shuffleboard, and a full calendar of social activities.

15. 2026-01-12
    historical $176,000 1275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1275 chars)

    Some homes are houses. This one is a lifestyle. Step inside and feel the difference right away — new flooring, fresh paint, and updated bathrooms give the space a clean, contemporary feel that's ready for you from day one. The primary suite truly earns the word "retreat, " with a luxurious ensuite and a closet that doesn't ask you to compromise. Plantation shutters frame every room beautifully while doing the practical work of keeping things private and temperate. Outside, your fully fenced yard — newly gated for private driveway access — is a quiet corner of the world just for you. Whether it's morning coffee in the garden or a weekend gathering with neighbors, the space delivers. The insulated 2-car garage handles the extras, washer/dryer included. And beyond your front door? Sun Meadows — where amenities read like a resort brochure: pool, spa, sauna, fitness center, tennis, pickleball, billiards, shuffleboard, and a social calendar full of reasons to say yes. Located within Sun Meadows, one of Menifee’s most amenity-rich senior communities, residents enjoy access to a clubhouse, gym, pool, spa, sauna, tennis and pickleball courts, billiards and card rooms, shuffleboard, and a full calendar of social activities.

16. 2025-12-09
    historical
17. 2025-06-06
    listed $177,500 Active
18. 2025-06-05
    historical
19. 2025-01-01
    historical
20. 2024-10-05
    listed $190,000 Active
21. 2024-10-02
    historical
22. 2023-05-03
    soldstatus $148,000 Closed Sale
23. 2023-02-15
    status Pending Sale
24. 2023-01-18
    status Active
25. 2023-01-10
    status Pending Sale
26. 2022-12-18
    listed $155,000 Active
27. 2021-06-02
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed Sale
28. 2021-05-07
    status Pending Sale
29. 2021-04-28
    listed $136,900 Active
30. 2020-08-28
    soldstatus $89,000 Closed Sale
31. 2020-08-07
    status Pending Sale
32. 2020-06-02
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $390 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,338 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$947/yr (+$79/mo · 242.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,859
• − Property taxes: −$390
• − Insurance: −$880
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,181
• − Management: −$2,181
• − Depreciation: −$5,120
• Taxable income: $6,654
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,597
• After-tax cash flow: $7,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Menifee, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,767
• Household income: $57,708
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1163.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+77.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $176,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-12 Coming Soon $176,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $177,500 CRMLS
• 2025-06-05 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-10-05 Listed $190,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-02 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2023-05-03 Sold (MLS) $148,000 CRMLS
• 2023-02-15 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-01-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-01-10 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-12-18 Listed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2021-06-02 Sold (MLS) $135,000 CRMLS
• 2021-05-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-04-28 Listed $136,900 CRMLS
• 2020-08-28 Sold (MLS) $89,000 CRMLS
• 2020-08-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-06-02 Listed $99,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $390 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.