47459 S Barehook St · Susitna North, AK 99688

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 506 sqft · Other public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2008 0.60 ac lot $277/sqft · 33% above area Est $107k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful cabin in the woods just blocks from Middle Caswell Lake in Willow. Enjoy the peaceful setting without having to rough it. Sits on a maintained road with high speed internet, well, septic, and grid electricity. Perfect for full time living out of the city or weekend getaways at an affordable price. Work on projects year round in the 12x16 workshop. Soil for garden beds is ready on site.

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to another unit
• Construction: Built in 2008; Wood frame construction; Metal roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a fire service area; Motion-activated exterior lighting; Road service area access; Exterior storage; Trailside setting; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Wood stove; Wood counters; Workshop; CO detector(s); Smoke detector(s); Telephone service; Window coverings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 1.7% in Susitna North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#128 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $575 of equity ($968 loan paydown + $-393 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $130,788 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.91%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,499
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 30.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,314
• Equity at exit: $38,697

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $37,422
• Equity at exit: $44,983

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99688

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,308 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,063

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $272	-5% $233	+0% $193	+5% $154	+10% $114
Rent	-10% $90	-5% $142	+0% $193	+5% $245	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $229	base $193	+0.5pp $157	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $140,000 Active 399-char remark
17. 2025-08-19
    price $140,000
18. 2025-07-17
    price $145,000
19. 2025-07-03
    listed $160,000 Active
20. 2021-11-24
    soldstatus
21. 2021-09-27
    status Pending
22. 2021-09-17
    listed $45,000 Active
23. 2013-07-08
    listed $75,000
24. 2012-05-18
    listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,118 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$548/yr (+$46/mo · 96.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,256
• − Management: −$1,256
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$0
• After-tax cash flow: $2,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Susitna North

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #22801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Susitna North, AK
• Population (ZIP): 2,542

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.28%
• Current HPI: 168.6582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+86.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $140,000 AKMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $140,000 AKMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $145,000 AKMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $160,000 AKMLS
• 2021-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-27 Pending — AKMLS
• 2021-09-17 Listed $45,000 AKMLS
• 2013-07-08 Listed $75,000 AKMLS
• 2012-05-18 Listed $75,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $570 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.