17018 Blue Ridge Pl · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$399,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,649 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 366 Days on market

Built 2017 6,891 sqft lot Est $480k · 17% under $387/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Polo Run at Lakewood Ranch — where modern living meets peaceful water views. This beautifully upgraded 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is nestled in one of the most sought-after communities in Lakewood Ranch. With a serene lake view out back and room to add your dream pool, this home offers the perfect combination of comfort, style, and functionality. Inside, you'll find a bright and open layout filled with thoughtful upgrades. The living area features a custom shiplap accent wall and detailed trim work in the entryway, bartop, and master bedroom. A 5/8” clear glass shower enclosure in the owner’s suite adds a touch of luxury, while ceiling fans in every room and on the

Key facts

• Lake view
• 6,891 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• CUSTOM SHIPLAP ACCENT WALL
• CLEAR GLASS SHOWER ENCLOSURE
• WHOLE-HOME GENERAC GENERATOR
• KEVLAR-RATED HURRICANE SCREENS
• SIMPLISAFE SECURITY SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area reported as 1,649 square feet; Building area total reported as 2,262 square feet
• Financial info: Community Development District (CDD) present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Icon Management; Monthly HOA fee of $387 (quarterly fee shown as $1,161); Association fees required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available and connected; Cable available and connected; Sprinkler meter and recycled sprinkler system; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Completed property condition; One-story; North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built using materials typical for single-family homes
• Exterior features: Irrigation system; Asphalt road frontage; Lot about 0.16 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $726 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $352k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1154 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,870/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 815% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $351,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $479,859
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6745 Chester Trl	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (+2%)	1mo	$518,000	$310	82
16745 Ellsworth Ave	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,676 (+2%)	1mo	$529,900	$316	76
17127 Blue Ridge Pl	0.12mi	3/3.0	1,836 (+11%)	1mo	$545,000	$297	71
17026 Loudon Pl	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,691 (+2%)	12mo	$520,000	$308	52
6739 Haverhill Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-13%)	8mo	$389,000	$270	50
17109 Kenton Ter	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (+10%)	7mo	$520,000	$286	49
17009 Seaford Way	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,793 (+9%)	1mo	$550,000	$307	48
6919 Dorset Ct	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,589 (-4%)	14mo	$399,100	$251	45
6239 Baywood Ct	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-13%)	4mo	$415,000	$291	41
17634 Camden Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,458 (-12%)	4mo	$387,000	$265	40
6507 Clairborne Ln	0.72mi	3/3.0	1,849 (+12%)	4mo	$520,000	$281	39
6915 Dorset Ct	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,458 (-12%)	12mo	$410,000	$281	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-32,560
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-22,779
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1154
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,870 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$470 /mo · $5,637/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,023
• Net cashflow: $726

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,951

Max offer price $399,999

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17335 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,950	$1.79	23d	1	0.31mi
6743 Haverhill Ct Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1348	$5,775	$4.28	23d	1	0.38mi
6647 Clairborne Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1836	$3,595	$1.96	23d	1	0.46mi
16814 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1124	$3,650	$3.25	23d	2	0.48mi
16804 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1131	$3,425	$3.03	2d	2	0.49mi
16904 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1195	$6,500	$5.44	3d	5	0.50mi
16706 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1203	$6,000	$4.99	14d	5	0.50mi
17006 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1196	$5,200	$4.35	23d	3	0.52mi
17108 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1203	$6,000	$4.99	23d	4	0.54mi
17118 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1214	$2,800	$2.31	14d	3	0.57mi
17118 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1214	$2,800	$2.31	1d	2	0.57mi
6137 Cessna Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2248	$11,000	$4.89	23d	1	0.59mi
6211 Baywood Ct Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2203	$3,200	$1.45	3d	1	0.64mi
17520 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1214	$6,000	$4.94	23d	2	0.64mi
17520 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$3,000	$2.68	23d	1	0.65mi
16808 Bwana Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2006	$5,500	$2.74	23d	1	0.65mi
17510 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1196	$6,200	$5.18	3d	5	0.66mi
6113 Cessna Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2248	$6,000	$2.67	23d	1	0.66mi
16717 Bwana Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2248	$6,000	$2.67	23d	1	0.67mi
17704 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$2,375	$2.08	23d	3	0.68mi
17704 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1545826P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$3,163	$2.21	14d	1	0.68mi
17626 Gawthrop Dr #206 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$5,500	$4.82	23d	1	0.68mi
17724 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1220	$3,250	$2.66	11d	3	0.70mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1453	$4,000	$2.75	19d	2	0.78mi
17902 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1213	$6,500	$5.36	15d	4	0.78mi
17815 Gawthrop Dr #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$7,500	$4.20	23d	1	0.78mi
17902 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1546175P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,965	$2.32	15d	1	0.78mi
5921 Wake Forest Run Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$3,500	$1.96	23d	1	0.80mi
5930 Cessna Run Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$12,500	$6.76	23d	1	0.81mi
5915 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2108	$4,800	$2.28	23d	1	0.81mi
18008 Gawthrop Dr #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,500	$2.17	15d	1	0.82mi
6026 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$12,000	$5.34	23d	1	0.83mi
5831 Wake Forest Run #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,995	$4.02	23d	1	0.85mi
18028 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$6,000	$4.58	15d	6	0.86mi
18017 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$6,000	$3.36	23d	1	0.88mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$7,000	$5.34	1d	3	0.90mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1300	$7,000	$5.38	23d	5	0.90mi
5815 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2108	$3,500	$1.66	23d	1	0.90mi
5947 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$13,000	$5.91	23d	1	0.92mi
18117 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$4,000	$2.24	23d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,999 Active 366 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,999 Active 365 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,999 Active 364 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,999 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,999 Active 361 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,999 Active 360 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,999 Active 358 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,999 Active 357 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,999 Active 356 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,999 Active 355 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,999 Active 351 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,999 Active 350 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,999 Active 349 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,999 Active 348 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $399,999
16. 2026-01-12
    status Active
17. 2026-01-10
    historical
18. 2025-12-20
    status Active
19. 2025-11-19
    status Pending
20. 2025-10-16
    price $400,000
21. 2025-10-08
    price $425,000
22. 2025-09-05
    price $450,000
23. 2025-05-15
    listed $475,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,637 · $470/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,637 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$5,637
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,675
• − Management: −$4,675
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable income: $2,762
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$663
• After-tax cash flow: $8,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $399,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $400,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $450,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Listed $475,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,637 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.