Falcon Plan · Poinciana, FL 34758

$361,999

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,471 sqft · SingleFamily · 142 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The two-story Falcon floor plan in Firethorn features 2,471 square feet of open-concept living space, presenting 5 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, a loft, 2-car garage, and many more memorable details. Downstairs includes a foyer, great room, a secondary bedroom with ensuite bathroom, kitchen and dining space alongside laundry and half-bath, while upstairs includes a loft space and three secondary bedrooms that share a bathroom. The primary suite is also nestled upstairs and includes a primary bathroom with dual vanity sinks, a walk-in shower, and spacious walk-in closet. Discover the Sherwood today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 141 days

🏗️ New construction. The $361,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $367,349.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $362k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-600 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Koa Elementary School (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,744 of 2,144 statewide, top 82%, 667 students, 63% FRL); Discovery Intermediate School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 898 students, 62% FRL); Liberty High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #554 of 667 statewide, top 84%, 1,613 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Osceola average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 840 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,612/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 28% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $261,162 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.01%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,349
• List price: $361,999
• Delta: -1.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5449 Isla Saona Dr	0.00mi	5/3.0	2,287 (-7%)	0mo	$362,794	$159	85
5793 Gingham Dr	0.10mi	5/3.0	2,575 (+4%)	8mo	$395,000	$153	80
5423 Crown Point Rd	0.55mi	5/3.5	2,471 (0%)	1mo	$365,000	$148	74
5806 Portico Pl	0.32mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,582 (+4%)	4mo	$470,000	$182	69
5641 Gingham Dr	0.19mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,138 (-14%)	0mo	$400,000	$187	63
5669 Portico Pl	0.29mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,575 (+4%)	7mo	$399,440	$155	63
5431 Isla Saona Dr	0.49mi	5/3.0	2,287 (-7%)	1mo	$361,934	$158	62
5679 LE Marin Way	0.06mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,106 (-15%)	7mo	$365,000	$173	60
5788 Portico Pl	0.31mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,197 (-11%)	1mo	$388,864	$177	57
5674 Portico Pl	0.25mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,174 (-12%)	5mo	$369,780	$170	57
5441 Crown Point Rd	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,271 (-8%)	1mo	$362,829	$160	53
4723 Cloister St	0.24mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,143 (-13%)	9mo	$360,000	$168	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-103,262
• Equity at exit: $54,773

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-160,716
• Equity at exit: $31,762

Cash invested: $102,858 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 48 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.5 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $392,390 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -15.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34758

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 840
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,612 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,926
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$459 /mo · $5,510/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,372

Max offer price $280,458

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-347	-5% $-474	+0% $-600	+5% $-727	+10% $-854
Rent	-10% $-807	-5% $-704	+0% $-600	+5% $-497	+10% $-394
Rate	-1.0pp $-415	-0.5pp $-507	base $-600	+0.5pp $-696	+1.0pp $-793

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,837
• Closing costs: $11,020
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5637 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,450	$1.16	7d	1	0.08mi
5456 Le Marin Way Poinciana, FL	4.0	2.0	1845	$2,000	$1.08	119d	1	0.09mi
5786 Gingham Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,600	$1.23	6d	1	0.14mi
5781 Gingham Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,390	$1.23	119d	1	0.14mi
5750 Gingham Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1940	$2,350	$1.21	119d	1	0.19mi
4763 Guinep Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,300	$1.22	74d	1	0.20mi
4690 Ackee Rd Unit Labs Kissimmee, FL	5.0	3.5	3053	$3,200	$1.05	110d	1	0.20mi
5794 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1881	$2,300	$1.22	87d	1	0.31mi
5794 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1881	$2,300	$1.22	42d	1	0.31mi
4665 Yellow Elder Way Kissimmee, FL	5.0	2.5	2520	$2,700	$1.07	74d	1	0.32mi
5838 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2370	$2,300	$0.97	119d	1	0.39mi
4755 Yellow Elder Way Kissimmee, FL	5.0	3.0	2287	$2,550	$1.11	4d	1	0.39mi
5858 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,250	$1.20	83d	1	0.42mi
5858 Le Marin Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,150	$1.14	7d	1	0.42mi
4814 Yellow Elder Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,195	$1.01	29d	1	0.48mi
5423 Crown Point RD Poinciana, FL	5.0	3.5	2471	$2,700	$1.09	7d	1	0.51mi
5626 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,295	$1.43	103d	1	0.80mi
5626 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,095	$1.31	42d	1	0.80mi
5626 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,095	$1.31	7d	1	0.80mi
5620 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,350	$1.23	119d	1	0.81mi
5608 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,300	$1.20	42d	1	0.81mi
5530 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2175	$2,550	$1.17	119d	1	0.83mi
5639 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,500	$1.31	119d	1	0.83mi
5621 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	86d	1	0.84mi
5615 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,500	$1.31	71d	1	0.84mi
5603 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,350	$1.23	103d	1	0.85mi
330 Aldershot Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2847	$2,300	$0.81	40d	1	0.92mi
5443 Isla Saona DR Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,300	$1.27	42d	1	0.96mi
5542 Pimenta Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$1,990	$1.04	42d	1	1.02mi
5513 Pimenta Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,350	$1.23	109d	1	1.06mi
242 Anson Dr Kissimmee, FL	6.0	2.5	2847	$3,600	$1.26	7d	1	1.09mi
532 Bassett Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2308	$2,195	$0.95	109d	1	1.14mi
419 Britten Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,265	$1.25	74d	1	1.16mi
419 Britten Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1814	$2,265	$1.25	67d	1	1.16mi
662 Brockton Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1632	$1,920	$1.18	97d	1	1.21mi
230 Beckenham Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2847	$2,395	$0.84	103d	1	1.29mi
672 Basingstoke Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2501	$850	$0.34	119d	1	1.34mi
670 Basingstoke Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,760	$1.06	40d	1	1.35mi
433 Bloomfield Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1814	$2,100	$1.16	88d	1	1.45mi
216 Citrine Loop Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2143	$2,485	$1.16	2d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $361,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Falcon)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2471

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan named Falcon (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $361,999 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $361,999 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $361,999 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $361,999 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $361,999 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $361,999 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $361,999 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $361,999 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $361,999 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $361,999 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $361,999 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $361,999 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $361,999 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $361,999 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $361,999 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $361,999 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $361,999 Active 121 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $361,999 Active 118 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $361,999 Active 117 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $361,999 Active 116 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $361,999 Active 115 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $361,999 Active 114 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $361,999 Active 113 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $361,999 Active 112 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $361,999 Active 109 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $361,999 Active 108 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $361,999 Active 107 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $361,999 Active 106 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $361,999 Active 105 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $361,999 Active 104 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $361,999 Active 103 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $361,999 Active 102 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $361,999 Active 101 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $361,999 Active 100 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $361,999 Active 99 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $361,999 Active 97 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $361,999 Active 96 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $361,999 Active 95 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $361,999 Active 93 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $361,999 Active 92 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $361,999 Active 91 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $361,999 Active 90 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $361,999 Active 87 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $361,999 Active 86 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $361,999 Active 85 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $361,999 Active 84 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $361,999 Active 82 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $361,999 Active 80 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $361,999 Active 79 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $361,999 Active 78 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,577
• − Property taxes: −$5,510
• − Insurance: −$1,837
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,507
• − Management: −$2,507
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,687
• Taxable loss: −$13,786
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,309
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Poinciana, FL, is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value enhancement through painting, landscaping, and modern upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's resale value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers and increase the home's resale value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, both for resale and rental purposes. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Koa Elementary School F FL #1,744/2,144 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Discovery Intermediate School F FL #495/571 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High Liberty High School F FL #554/667 Nat'l #14,027/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Osceola County · 447,624 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,768
• Household income: $66,339
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 28% of renters

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Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Black 22% Two or more races 16% White 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 36% Cuban 3% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.53%
• Current HPI: 295.8928
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $361,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Falcon)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2471

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan named Falcon (new construction plan)