22681 Prospect Hts · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1986 5,662 sqft lot $142/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 37% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the 55+ community of Yosemite Vista Estates in Groveland, this home offers comfortable living with scenic views and a peaceful foothill setting. Featuring an original interior with great potential to update to your personal style, the home includes a functional floor plan, spacious living area, and abundant natural light. Enjoy relaxing on the deck while taking in the surrounding views and mountain atmosphere. Just a short drive to Yosemite National Park and outdoor recreation.

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Deck
• Scenic views

Tags

• SCENIC VIEWS
• PEACEFUL FOOTHILL SETTING
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with clubhouse and pool; Monthly HOA fee of $142; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered parking spaces; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Private water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (street level listing: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths); Built in 1986
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Community pool; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Disposal; Solid surface countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dining area; Solid surface counters; Free-standing fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.08%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $7,608
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $49,950
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95321

• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$142
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $616	-5% $571	+0% $525	+5% $480	+10% $435
Rent	-10% $358	-5% $442	+0% $525	+5% $609	+10% $693
Rate	-1.0pp $606	-0.5pp $566	base $525	+0.5pp $484	+1.0pp $442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $142 · $1,704/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $159,900 Active
19. 2000-01-28
    soldstatus $255,000
20. 1999-12-27
    soldstatus $255,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − HOA: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $4,030
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$967
• After-tax cash flow: $5,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,870

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.27%
• Current HPI: 137.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-37.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $159,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 1999-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,230 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.