12189 Brae Way · Dade City, FL 33525

$332,400

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $330k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

Key facts

• Adjoining bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN-PLAN FAMILY ROOM
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $341,400

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction, Spec home (Plan Celeste); Single-family residence
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,824; Built as part of new construction inventory
• Exterior features: Address: 12189 Brae Way, Dade City, FL 33525

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (model Celeste)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan Celeste)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $332k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Antonio Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Pasco Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 903 students, 73% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,772/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 322% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($322k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $277,204 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $330,144
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11119 Brae Way	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	2mo	$315,900	$173	93
12038 Brae Way	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	9mo	$305,150	$167	86
12004 Brae Way	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	10mo	$329,900	$181	84
11974 Brae Way	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	12mo	$334,900	$184	81
11947 Brae Way	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	13mo	$340,900	$187	79
11938 Brae Way	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	12mo	$344,900	$189	79
11917 Brae Way	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	13mo	$339,900	$186	78
11879 Brae Way	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,824 (0%)	12mo	$329,900	$181	76
11784 Brae Way	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,874 (+3%)	12mo	$314,000	$168	66
11754 Brae Way	0.41mi	4/2.5	1,874 (+3%)	12mo	$314,900	$168	64
11737 Brae Way	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,874 (+3%)	12mo	$324,900	$173	64
11662 Brae Way	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,874 (+3%)	10mo	$319,000	$170	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-60,595
• Equity at exit: $49,562

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-61,160
• Equity at exit: $28,740

Cash invested: $93,072 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,772 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,743
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,986/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,908

Max offer price $316,884

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $122	-5% $8	+0% $-107	+5% $-222	+10% $-337
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-217	+0% $-107	+5% $2	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $-23	base $-107	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,100
• Closing costs: $9,972
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11413 Brae Way Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,700	$1.16	26d	1	0.40mi
28882 Renda Ln San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,390	$2.26	0d	21	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $332,400 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $331,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $331,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $331,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $342,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $342,900 Active 42 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,620
• − Property taxes: −$4,986
• − Insurance: −$1,662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,661
• − Management: −$2,661
• − Depreciation: −$9,670
• Taxable loss: −$6,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,679
• After-tax cash flow: $392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern single-story home is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It's move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and tenant satisfaction

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B