405 W Jackson · Gould, AR 71643

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,551 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1983 $29/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper wtih great potential - solid full brick 3 bedroom ranch home with single garage and fireplace. Investors don't miss looking at this one. Property sold "as is" with no repairs by seller. No seller disclosure. Agents please see agent remarks for showing instructions.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1983
• Listed 96 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#400 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Dumas School District (town): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #215 of 238 in AR (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.09%
• DSCR: 3.67
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,924
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -51.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $45,615
• Equity at exit: $20,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.42×
• Total profit: $106,095
• Equity at exit: $31,183

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71643

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $555/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $381

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $45,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Price Change 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Price Change 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Price Change 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $45,000 Price Change 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $47,500 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $47,500 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $47,500 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $47,500 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,500 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,500 Active 77 DOM
17. 2026-03-13
    listed $47,500 New Listing 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Fixer upper wtih great potential - solid full brick 3 bedroom ranch home with single garage and fireplace. Investors don't miss looking at this one. Property sold "as is" with no repairs by seller. No seller disclosure. Agents please see agent remarks for showing instructions.

18. 2002-07-10
    soldstatus $47,000
19. 2001-11-14
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $555 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $555 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$555
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,132
• − Management: −$1,132
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,747
• After-tax cash flow: $5,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dumas School District
• NCES district ID: 0505500
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,945
• Composite: 15.97/100
• National rank: #9245
• State rank: #215 of 238 in AR

Livability — Gould

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #400
• US rank: #23105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gould, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,241

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,516 people
• By 2030: 13,354 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 13,200 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 13,170 · -2.6%
• By 2075: 12,581 · -6.9%
• By 2100: 10,008 · -26.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.1) · D 24.1% · R 74.2% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.9pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -50.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.1 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+31.5 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+13.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $47,500 CARMLS
• 2002-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2001-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $555 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.