21765 N 259th Ave · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$349,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,579 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2020 6,658 sqft lot Est $358k · at est. $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

5 year NEW home with landscape, window treatments, washer/dryer/fridge, ceiling fans already in place! 2-car garage! Enter to find a perfectly flowing open floor plan filled with abundant natural light and a blend of tile & carpet flooring, window blinds, and fresh paint throughout. Open kitchen offers a pantry, ample cabinets, recessed lighting, stainless steel appliances, granite counters, & a prep island with a breakfast bar that allows you to stay connected with guests while preparing meals. Large main bedroom includes a private bathroom & a walk-in closet. The s secondary bedrooms provide six-panel door closets. As a bonus, a washer and dryer convey. Don't miss the spa

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Window treatments
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• WINDOW TREATMENTS
• WASHER DRYER FRIDGE
• CEILING FANS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• TILE CARPET FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options: Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $125; Association fee covers grounds maintenance; Association rules prohibit visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats; Community features include playground and biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Playground on site; East/West exposure; Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; Synthetic grass in backyard; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar; Granite countertops
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows; Tankless hot water heater; Fire pit
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Festival Foothills Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 31% FRL); Wickenburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 460 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 939 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,666 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $358,433
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25928 W Vista North Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,579 (0%)	3mo	$342,000	$217	95
25946 W Swilling Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-1%)	2mo	$327,000	$209	90
21489 N 262nd Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+2%)	2mo	$449,900	$279	74
21361 N 262nd Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+2%)	3mo	$380,000	$236	70
26218 W Vista North Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,493 (-5%)	1mo	$320,000	$214	67
26237 W Vista North Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,493 (-5%)	1mo	$339,000	$227	67
26268 W Louise Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+2%)	3mo	$475,000	$295	66
21139 N 259th Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+13%)	2mo	$372,400	$209	62
21613 N 261st Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-11%)	4mo	$324,700	$230	61
26343 W Tina Ln	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,646 (+4%)	3mo	$370,000	$225	60
26254 W Via Del Sol Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-13%)	1mo	$352,500	$256	57
21235 N 262nd Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-11%)	3mo	$270,000	$191	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-61,079
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-55,893
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 939
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,985/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,868

Max offer price $333,413

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $11	+0% $-88	+5% $-187	+10% $-286
Rent	-10% $-306	-5% $-197	+0% $-88	+5% $21	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $1	base $-88	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21605 N 261st Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1115	$2,000	$1.79	2d	1	0.26mi
26170 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1115	$3,300	$2.96	2d	1	0.33mi
26197 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,850	$2.07	11d	1	0.34mi
26197 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,900	$2.11	2d	1	0.34mi
26195 W Via del Sol Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1493	$3,300	$2.21	2d	1	0.34mi
26028 W Matthew Dr Unit NA Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,750	$1.38	44d	1	0.39mi
26208 W Tina Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$1,999	$1.24	13d	1	0.40mi
26237 W Matthew Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1646	$3,500	$2.13	2d	1	0.56mi
26043 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.5	2025	$1,900	$0.94	3d	1	0.61mi
26477 W Ross Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,500	$1.09	44d	1	0.89mi
26653 W Firehawk Dr Unit 1302342P Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1883	$2,459	$1.31	2d	1	0.90mi
20493 N 264th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1961	$4,200	$2.14	2d	1	0.98mi
20669 N 266th Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	25d	1	1.03mi
26182 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,695	$1.04	3d	1	1.18mi
25925 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	4.0	2.0	2131	$1,999	$0.94	6d	1	1.21mi
25925 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	4.0	2.0	2131	$2,200	$1.03	44d	1	1.21mi
26087 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$2,300	$1.42	44d	1	1.23mi
26766 W Mohawk Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,500	$1.82	5d	1	1.26mi
26824 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	2092	$3,500	$1.67	44d	1	1.27mi
26731 W Pontiac Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1373	$1,475	$1.07	3d	1	1.33mi
20540 N 268th Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1961	$2,200	$1.12	13d	1	1.37mi
27013 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	44d	1	1.48mi
26990 W Burnett Rd Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1961	$4,000	$2.04	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 687-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $349,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,985 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,303 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$319/yr (+$27/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$1,985
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,646
• − Management: −$2,646
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$7,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,715
• After-tax cash flow: $656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $349,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+38.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,985 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.