528 E Jefferson St · Van Alstyne, TX 75495

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 826 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1940 8,581 sqft lot $144/sqft · 37% below area Est $189k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Prime investment opportunity or a blank canvas for the visionary buyer at 528 East Jefferson. This property is ready for a complete renovation and is priced accordingly, offering tremendous location, lot size, and potential. Sold in as-is condition. The lot size is 8,587 sq ft. , with a current appraised value of over $99,000.00 just for the land (Grayson County Appraiser District). The current tax value on the existing structures and lot is over $160,000.00. Perfectly situated one block from vibrant downtown Van Alstyne, Texas, a community rooted in history and geared towards the future. Van Alstyne offers a unique blend of small-town charm, suburban convenience, and good schools, making i

Key facts

• Complete renovation
• Lot size
• 8,581 sq ft lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• COMPLETE RENOVATION
• LOT SIZE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is listed as residential, single family; status Active Under Contract
• Financial info: No second mortgage listed; Loan type: Treat As Clear
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No covered or carport spaces listed; Other parking features
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1940; One story
• Construction: Year built: 1940
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 0.197 acres; Lot recorded by assessor; Subdivision: OTP Van Alstyne Add

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One-level layout; Living area of 826; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($185/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.7% in Van Alstyne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#134 in TX, #3,950 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Van Alstyne ISD (rural): math 62% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #51 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 624 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.56%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,479
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -37.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
528 E Jefferson St	0.00mi	2/1.0	826 (0%)	0mo	$119,000	$144	100
226 Baldwin St	0.40mi	2/1.0	752 (-9%)	14mo	$135,000	$180	54
841 S Burk St	0.48mi	2/1.0	875 (+6%)	16mo	$244,999	$280	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-18,189
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-14,122
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75495

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,583/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,231

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
653 N Henry Hynds Expy Van Alstyne, TX	2.0	1.0	575	$999	$1.74	17d	3	0.93mi
15 Henry Hynds Expy Unit 15 Van Alstyne, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$999	$1.33	43d	1	0.95mi
500 U.S. 75 Unit 1 Van Alstyne, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$999	$1.33	24d	1	1.00mi
500 U.S. 75 Unit 35 Van Alstyne, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$899	$1.50	20d	1	1.00mi
500 U.S. 75 Unit 6 Van Alstyne, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$899	$1.50	43d	1	1.00mi
500 U.S. 75 Unit 9 Van Alstyne, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$999	$1.33	43d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $119,000 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active Option Contract 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active Option Contract 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active Option Contract 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active Option Contract 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active Option Contract 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active Option Contract 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,000 Active Option Contract 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $119,000 Active Option Contract 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-04-22
    listed $119,000 Active 743-char remark
14. 2006-04-27
    soldstatus
15. 1998-08-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,583 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,583 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$3,583
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$1,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$409
• After-tax cash flow: $594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Alstyne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843890
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $68,451
• Composite: 53.28/100
• National rank: #1491
• State rank: #51 of 826 in TX

Livability — Van Alstyne

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #3950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Van Alstyne, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 11,120
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,120
• Household income: $111,563
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 93.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.06%
• Current HPI: 274.6361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-06-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-23 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $119,000 NTREIS
• 2006-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,583 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.