Eaglepoint II Plan · Mesa, AZ 85209

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 871 sqft · Manufactured · 826 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Key facts

• Listed 825 days

🏗️ New construction. The $129,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $105,931.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 165 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($732 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 826 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 826 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.26%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,931
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 22.63%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 S Ellsworth Rd	0.37mi	2/2.0	906 (+4%)	0mo	$192,000	$212	76
8865 E Baseline Rd #1232	0.32mi	2/2.0	748 (-14%)	1mo	$96,000	$128	60
8865 E Baseline Rd #1416	0.32mi	1/2.0 (-1)	924 (+6%)	17mo	$67,000	$73	56
8865 E Baseline Rd #715	0.44mi	2/2.0	998 (+15%)	3mo	$108,000	$108	53
8865 E Baseline Rd #1218	0.32mi	2/2.0	748 (-14%)	16mo	$135,000	$180	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $39,927
• Equity at exit: $38,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $92,656
• Equity at exit: $53,258

Cash invested: $29,661 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,717 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$556
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$132 /mo · $1,589/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $927

Max offer price $105,931

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,483
• Closing costs: $3,178
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 101B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$1,555	$1.68	43d	1	0.03mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 3B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	976	$1,606	$1.65	15d	1	0.03mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 94B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$3,702	$4.01	24d	1	0.03mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #405 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.5	619	$1,900	$3.07	43d	1	0.34mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1129 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	748	$3,200	$4.28	5d	1	0.34mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #300 Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	764	$2,000	$2.62	18d	1	0.34mi
9335 E Baseline Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$1,717	$1.48	1d	14	0.39mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1028 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,500	$1.46	43d	1	0.47mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	15d	3	0.47mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1145	$1,575	$1.37	24d	1	0.47mi
9233 E Neville Ave #1088 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,850	$1.75	5d	1	0.53mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	616	$1,164	$1.89	43d	1	0.80mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,390	$1.32	24d	1	0.80mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	971	$1,390	$1.43	3d	11	0.80mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,772	$2.96	1d	1	1.15mi
2064 S Farnsworth Dr #25 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,595	$1.58	22d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 826 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 825 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 824 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 823 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 821 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 817 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 816 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 815 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,900 Active 812 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 811 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 810 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 809 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 808 DOM
14. 2025-07-19
    price $129,900
15. 2025-03-08
    price $138,900
16. 2024-09-09
    price $148,900
17. 2024-03-14
    listed $163,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,934
• − Property taxes: −$1,589
• − Insurance: −$530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − Depreciation: −$3,082
• Taxable income: $6,174
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,482
• After-tax cash flow: $6,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a good location. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some landscaping and painting to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look newer
• Both Lighting — Modern lighting can improve the home's ambiance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look newer ↑
• Both Lighting — Modern lighting can improve the home's ambiance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-20.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $129,900 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $138,900 Zillow
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $148,900 Zillow
• 2024-03-14 Listed $163,900 Zillow