817 N Park Ave · Karnes City, TX 78118

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured · 24 Days on market

Built 2010 0.29 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 2010
• Listed 24 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (open)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); One story; Not attached
• Construction: Built in 1975; Siding exterior; Composition/shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Large backyard with grass

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Window coverings; One living area; One dining area; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#627 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Karnes City ISD (town): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #665 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roger E Sides El (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 288 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Karnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Karnes County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.00%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $28,227
• Equity at exit: $59,098

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $82,236
• Equity at exit: $95,293

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78118

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $182	+0% $140	+5% $99	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $92	+0% $140	+5% $189	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $171	base $140	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $120,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,178
• − Management: −$1,178
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$59
• After-tax cash flow: $1,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Karnes City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825140
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,808
• Composite: 24.12/100
• National rank: #7752
• State rank: #665 of 826 in TX

Livability — Karnes City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #11963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Karnes City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,097

Population outlook (Karnes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,734 people
• By 2030: 18,027 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 20,893 · +24.9%
• By 2050: 23,689 · +41.6%
• By 2075: 31,064 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 34,752 · +107.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 30% Two or more races 25% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Karnes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.1) · D 20.7% · R 78.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -58.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.1 2020: R+52.1 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+35.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Current HPI: 87.2904
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2015-06-29 Price Changed $118,750 LERA
• 2015-04-14 Price Changed $127,000 LERA
• 2014-07-24 Price Changed $135,000 LERA
• 2014-03-09 Price Changed $140,000 LERA
• 2014-03-08 Price Changed $130,000 LERA
• 2014-02-18 Price Changed $135,000 LERA
• 2014-02-03 Listed $140,000 LERA
• 2014-01-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2013-08-22 Listed $145,000 LERA

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $53 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.