106 Lookout Dr · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$269,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,698 sqft · SingleFamily · 299 Days on market

Built 1975 Fair condition 0.45 ac lot $159/sqft · 12% below area Est $307k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hemlock Farms charmer nestled in the woods but accessible to modern civilization with interstate on-ramps a few scant miles away. Two bedrooms and a bathroom on each floor, with a secluded balcony-style porch and walking distance to the year-round clubhouse. Fridge, range, and dishwasher are there and can be negotiated as part of the sales agreement. All measurements estimated. Owner is a relative of broker.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 298 days

Tags

• SECLUDED BALCONY STYLE PORCH
• WALKING DISTANCE TO CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $737 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 374 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $89k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $270k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $237,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.71%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,298
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -12.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Blackbirch Ln	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,734 (+2%)	8mo	$215,000	$124	73
106 Basswood Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+6%)	10mo	$270,000	$150	72
800 Dogwood Ct W	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-2%)	11mo	$295,000	$178	68
119 Overlook Ln	0.19mi	4/1.5	1,586 (-7%)	21mo	$290,600	$183	60
100 Forest Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,735 (+2%)	4mo	$365,900	$211	56
101 Tupelo Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-10%)	11mo	$333,000	$217	54
122 Remuda Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+0%)	17mo	$250,000	$147	53
805 Forest Pl	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,876 (+10%)	3mo	$265,000	$141	53
137 Remuda Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,664 (-2%)	5mo	$280,000	$168	51
137 Lookout Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (+12%)	16mo	$315,000	$166	45
131 Highland Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,907 (+12%)	21mo	$390,000	$205	41
805 Woodland Ct	0.62mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,948 (+15%)	19mo	$449,000	$230	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $194,005
• Equity at exit: $243,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.07×
• Total profit: $534,482
• Equity at exit: $524,356

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,048/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $737

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,361

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $924	-5% $831	+0% $737	+5% $644	+10% $551
Rent	-10% $477	-5% $607	+0% $737	+5% $867	+10% $998
Rate	-1.0pp $873	-0.5pp $806	base $737	+0.5pp $667	+1.0pp $596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 Hickory Ct Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	0d	1	0.75mi
131 Surrey Dr Hawley, PA	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,650	$1.36	44d	1	0.94mi
313 Forest Dr Blooming Grove, PA	3.0	2.0	1200	$4,600	$3.83	0d	1	1.05mi
106 Corral Ln Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2150	$4,000	$1.86	4d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 299 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 296 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 295 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 294 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 293 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 291 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $269,900 Active 290 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 287 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 286 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 285 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,900 Active 282 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 281 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 280 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 279 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 278 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $279,900 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Hemlock Farms charmer nestled in the woods but accessible to modern civilization with interstate on-ramps a few scant miles away. Two bedrooms and a bathroom on each floor, with a secluded balcony-style porch and walking distance to the year-round clubhouse. Fridge, range, and dishwasher are there and can be negotiated as part of the sales agreement. All measurements estimated. Owner is a relative of broker.

17. 2026-04-02
    status Active 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Hemlock Farms charmer nestled in the woods but accessible to modern civilization with interstate on-ramps a few scant miles away. Two bedrooms and a bathroom on each floor, with a secluded balcony-style porch and walking distance to the year-round clubhouse. Fridge, range, and dishwasher are there and can be negotiated as part of the sales agreement. All measurements estimated. Owner is a relative of broker.

18. 2026-04-02
    price $289,500 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Hemlock Farms charmer nestled in the woods but accessible to modern civilization with interstate on-ramps a few scant miles away. Two bedrooms and a bathroom on each floor, with a secluded balcony-style porch and walking distance to the year-round clubhouse. Fridge, range, and dishwasher are there and can be negotiated as part of the sales agreement. All measurements estimated. Owner is a relative of broker.

19. 2026-01-05
    status Active 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Hemlock Farms charmer nestled in the woods but accessible to modern civilization with interstate on-ramps a few scant miles away. Two bedrooms and a bathroom on each floor, with a secluded balcony-style porch and walking distance to the year-round clubhouse. Fridge, range, and dishwasher are there and can be negotiated as part of the sales agreement. All measurements estimated. Owner is a relative of broker.

20. 2025-12-30
    price $309,500 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Hemlock Farms charmer nestled in the woods but accessible to modern civilization with interstate on-ramps a few scant miles away. Two bedrooms and a bathroom on each floor, with a secluded balcony-style porch and walking distance to the year-round clubhouse. Fridge, range, and dishwasher are there and can be negotiated as part of the sales agreement. All measurements estimated. Owner is a relative of broker.

21. 2025-10-16
    price $335,000 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Hemlock Farms charmer nestled in the woods but accessible to modern civilization with interstate on-ramps a few scant miles away. Two bedrooms and a bathroom on each floor, with a secluded balcony-style porch and walking distance to the year-round clubhouse. Fridge, range, and dishwasher are there and can be negotiated as part of the sales agreement. All measurements estimated. Owner is a relative of broker.

22. 2025-08-18
    listed $359,000 Active 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Hemlock Farms charmer nestled in the woods but accessible to modern civilization with interstate on-ramps a few scant miles away. Two bedrooms and a bathroom on each floor, with a secluded balcony-style porch and walking distance to the year-round clubhouse. Fridge, range, and dishwasher are there and can be negotiated as part of the sales agreement. All measurements estimated. Owner is a relative of broker.

23. 2015-05-01
    soldstatus $60,000 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    WALK TO CLUBHOUSE WITH INDOOR & OUTDOOR POOLS, CAFE, TENNIS & FITNESS CENTER. This four bedroom view house has two covered porches, 2 Full Bathrooms, an Open Floor Plan and is the perfect Vacation/Retreat home in a Secured Amenity Filled Community. Will Not Last at this Price. DON'T MISS THIS OUT!!!, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Beds Description: 2+BED 2nd, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 1 Bath Level 2

24. 2014-04-28
    listed $79,900 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    WALK TO CLUBHOUSE WITH INDOOR & OUTDOOR POOLS, CAFE, TENNIS & FITNESS CENTER. This four bedroom view house has two covered porches, 2 Full Bathrooms, an Open Floor Plan and is the perfect Vacation/Retreat home in a Secured Amenity Filled Community. Will Not Last at this Price. DON'T MISS THIS OUT!!!, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Beds Description: 2+BED 2nd, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 1 Bath Level 2

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$4,048
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,163
• − Management: −$3,163
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable income: $4,839
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,161
• After-tax cash flow: $7,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Repairs to siding, flooring, and interior walls are necessary, along with maintenance and landscaping improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major flooring — Severe wear and tear
• Major interior walls/paint — Visible damage and peeling paint

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace carpet — New carpet improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant damage and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Severe wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Visible damage and peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace carpet — New carpet improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+250.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $279,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $289,500 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-05 Relisted — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $309,500 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $335,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-08-18 Listed $359,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2015-05-01 Sold (MLS) $60,000 PWMLS
• 2014-04-28 Listed $79,900 PWMLS