125 Water District Road 214 · Breckenridge, TX 76424

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 921 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

0.38 ac lot $81/sqft · 48% below area Est $144k · 48% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hubbard Creek Lake, lakeview cabin situated on two well-groomed lots, offering 921 sq ft with 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Open kitchen flows into the living area, creating a comfortable and functional layout. Spacious laundry room provides extra storage space for lake gear and fishing equipment. Home features a durable metal roof and carport for covered parking. A 400 sq ft Derksen-built storage building with roll-up door and side entry is attached and offers excellent potential to be converted into additional living space. Conveniently located just a quarter mile from the public boat ramp, making lake access quick and easy. Ideal for a weekend getaway or full-time lake retreat—come enjoy lake living and make lasting memories.

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Storage building
• Carport

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• CARPORT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($995 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.6% in Breckenridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#695 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Breckenridge ISD (town): math 36% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #551 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Stephens County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.52%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,557
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -47.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 CR 307	0.10mi	2/1.5	1,040 (+13%)	5mo	$115,000	$111	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $22,804
• Equity at exit: $28,781

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $61,462
• Equity at exit: $40,839

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76424

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $871/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $629

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $75,000 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    Hubbard Creek Lake, lakeview cabin situated on two well-groomed lots, offering 921 sq ft with 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Open kitchen flows into the living area, creating a comfortable and functional layout. Spacious laundry room provides extra storage space for lake gear and fishing equipment. Home features a durable metal roof and carport for covered parking. A 400 sq ft Derksen-built storage building with roll-up door and side entry is attached and offers excellent potential to be converted into additional living space. Conveniently located just a quarter mile from the public boat ramp, making lake access quick and easy. Ideal for a weekend getaway or full-time lake retreat—come enjoy lake living and make lasting memories.

16. 2026-04-17
    listed $80,000 Active 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (741 chars)

    Hubbard Creek Lake, lakeview cabin situated on two well-groomed lots, offering 921 sq ft with 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Open kitchen flows into the living area, creating a comfortable and functional layout. Spacious laundry room provides extra storage space for lake gear and fishing equipment. Home features a durable metal roof and carport for covered parking. A 400 sq ft Derksen-built storage building with roll-up door and side entry is attached and offers excellent potential to be converted into additional living space. Conveniently located just a quarter mile from the public boat ramp, making lake access quick and easy. Ideal for a weekend getaway or full-time lake retreat—come enjoy lake living and make lasting memories.

17. 2020-12-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $871 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$502/yr (+$42/mo · 57.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$871
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$955
• − Management: −$955
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,403
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$577
• After-tax cash flow: $2,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckenridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,744
• Composite: 28.66/100
• National rank: #6700
• State rank: #551 of 826 in TX

Livability — Breckenridge

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #695
• US rank: #12987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,626

Population outlook (Stephens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,625 people
• By 2030: 11,029 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 11,827 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 12,609 · +18.7%
• By 2075: 13,855 · +30.4%
• By 2100: 13,067 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Stephens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.3) · D 10.2% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -63.6pp · 2024: -79.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.3 2020: R+78.6 2016: R+77.8 2012: R+70.9 2008: R+63.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Current HPI: 110.8496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $75,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2020-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $871 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.