207 Bardwell Way · Buda, TX 78610

$278,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $157/sqft · 13% below area Est $322k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out 207 Bardwell Way featured in our Prairie Lakes community in Buda, TX. This home offers 1,782 square feet of living space across 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and 2 stories. As you enter through the front door, you're greeted by one of the secondary bedrooms and full bath. Stepping further into the home you immediately notice the gourmet kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and quartz countertops. The kitchen flows into the living area with windows that let in natural light giving the home a bright and open feel.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Gourmet kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• FULL IRRIGATION SYSTEM
• AMERICA'S SMART HOME PACKAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Buda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#339 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Camino Real El (math 22% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 782 students, 76% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1513 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,330 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,403
• List price: $278,990
• Delta: -13.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
199 Bardwell Way	0.01mi	4/3.0	1,782 (0%)	4mo	$280,840	$158	96
220 Bardwell Way	0.02mi	4/3.0	1,641 (-8%)	1mo	$266,990	$163	85
275 Mustang Lake Cir	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,771 (-1%)	2mo	$322,730	$182	82
576 Gilmer Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,659 (-7%)	1mo	$320,990	$193	81
217 Bardwell Way	0.01mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,938 (+9%)	1mo	$296,990	$153	77
1031 Phantom Hill Blvd	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,565 (-12%)	3mo	$252,683	$161	67
231 Garcia St	0.27mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+6%)	3mo	$293,990	$155	67
508 Bull Lake Cir	0.28mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+6%)	3mo	$287,990	$152	67
475 Mustang Lake Cir	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-10%)	3mo	$304,790	$191	66
195 Mustang Lake Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-10%)	1mo	$309,089	$194	60
141 Mustang Lake Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,589 (-11%)	1mo	$310,490	$195	59
111 Mustang Lake Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,589 (-11%)	1mo	$311,840	$196	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-64,518
• Equity at exit: $41,598

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-97,442
• Equity at exit: $24,122

Cash invested: $78,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 42 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $295,990 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 105 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1513
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,185/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,441

Max offer price $249,582

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10	-5% $-107	+0% $-203	+5% $-300	+10% $-396
Rent	-10% $-376	-5% $-289	+0% $-203	+5% $-117	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-132	base $-203	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,748
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
171 Bardwell Way Niederwald, TX	4.0	3.0	1782	$1,995	$1.12	4d	1	0.07mi
161 Bardwell Way Niederwald, TX	4.0	3.0	1641	$1,925	$1.17	64d	1	0.08mi
118 Lake Kemp Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,150	$1.35	6d	1	0.14mi
148 Garcia St Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,900	$1.29	119d	1	0.30mi
143 Santa Teresa Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2042	$2,500	$1.22	139d	1	0.37mi
143 Santa Rosa Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2042	$2,400	$1.18	6d	1	0.38mi
143 Shafter St Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,050	$1.22	64d	1	0.40mi
282 Bull Lake Cir Buda, TX	5.0	2.5	1892	$2,250	$1.19	42d	1	0.42mi
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,095	$1.30	82d	1	0.49mi
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1679	$1,999	$1.19	60d	1	0.49mi
792 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1679	$1,999	$1.19	42d	1	0.49mi
417 Lake Sweetwater Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1713	$1,950	$1.14	6d	1	0.58mi
143 Shafter ST Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,100	$1.25	56d	1	0.70mi
164 Peck St Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2159	$2,500	$1.16	139d	1	1.08mi
101 Montz Pt Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,500	$1.69	2d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-07-02
   days on market $278,990 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-07-01
   days on market $278,990 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-30
   days on market $278,990 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-29
   days on market $278,990 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-28
   days on market $278,990 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-27
   days on market $278,990 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-26
   days on market $278,990 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-24
   days on market $278,990 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-22
   days on market $278,990 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-21
    days on market $278,990 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-18
    days on market $278,990 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-17
    days on market $278,990 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-16
    days on market $278,990 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-15
    days on market $278,990 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-13
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-06-13
    listed $278,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,185
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$7,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,756
• After-tax cash flow: $-683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,910–$26,730 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minimal repairs or maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior siding and landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor updates can make the home more appealing and increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Camino Real El F TX #3,492/4,322 Nat'l #33,016/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Moe And Gene Johnson H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Buda

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #339
• US rank: #7407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 48,319
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B