154 Road 5215 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$88,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Manufactured public records · 525 Days on market

Built 1985 0.50 ac lot $84/sqft · 35% below area Est $119k · 26% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Bedroom and 2 bathroom home in a low tax rate area and low HOA annual fee.Close to I-59 and 99 Grand Parkway,few minutes away from Valley Ranch Center.Esta bien localizada en zona de pocas restricciones y muy bajito pago de HOA anual.Puede construir una nueva casa,hay algunas nuevas alrededor.Es una zona que esta creciendo bastante,con buenas escuelas y buenos centros comerciales.Tiene drenaje,agua y servicio de luz.

Key facts

• Low tax rate area
• Low hoa annual fee
• Close to i-59

Tags

• LOW TAX RATE AREA
• LOW HOA ANNUAL FEE
• CLOSE TO I-59
• CLOSE TO 99 GRAND PARKWAY
• PUEDE CONSTRUIR UNA NUEVA CASA
• ZONA QUE ESTA CRECIENDO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 525 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 7900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 525 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.09%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,950
• List price: $88,000
• Delta: -26.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5177 Road 5210	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+1%)	0mo	$107,900	$101	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $20,009
• Equity at exit: $13,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $65,770
• Equity at exit: $7,609

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,415 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,097/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $763

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	15d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,000 Active 525 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,000 Active 524 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,000 Active 523 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,000 Active 522 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,000 Active 520 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,000 Active 516 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,000 Active 515 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $88,000 Active 514 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $88,000 Active 511 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $88,000 Active 510 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,000 Active 509 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,000 Active 508 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,000 Active 507 DOM
14. 2025-03-09
    historical $1,100
15. 2025-03-09
    listed $1,100
16. 2025-01-09
    listed $88,000 Active 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    2 Bedroom and 2 bathroom home in a low tax rate area and low HOA annual fee.Close to I-59 and 99 Grand Parkway,few minutes away from Valley Ranch Center.Esta bien localizada en zona de pocas restricciones y muy bajito pago de HOA anual.Puede construir una nueva casa,hay algunas nuevas alrededor.Es una zona que esta creciendo bastante,con buenas escuelas y buenos centros comerciales.Tiene drenaje,agua y servicio de luz.

17. 2025-01-09
    historical

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    2 Bedroom and 2 bathroom home in a low tax rate area and low HOA annual fee.Close to I-59 and 99 Grand Parkway,few minutes away from Valley Ranch Center.Esta bien localizada en zona de pocas restricciones y muy bajito pago de HOA anual.Puede construir una nueva casa,hay algunas nuevas alrededor.Es una zona que esta creciendo bastante,con buenas escuelas y buenos centros comerciales.Tiene drenaje,agua y servicio de luz.

18. 2024-10-01
    status Active
19. 2024-08-25
    status Pending
20. 2024-08-18
    status Option Pending
21. 2024-07-15
    price $88,000
22. 2024-06-11
    price $98,000
23. 2024-03-29
    price $115,000
24. 2024-02-12
    price $130,000
25. 2023-10-20
    listed $135,000 Active
26. 2022-07-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$514/yr (+$43/mo · 46.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$1,097
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,358
• − Management: −$1,358
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable income: $5,080
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,219
• After-tax cash flow: $4,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-09 Rental Removed $1,100 HARMLS
• 2025-03-09 Listed for Rent $1,100 HARMLS
• 2025-01-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-09 Listed $88,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-08-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-08-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-07-15 Price Changed $88,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $98,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-29 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-20 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,097 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.