38 Road 5108 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$139,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 15 Days on market

Built 2019 0.41 ac lot Est $128k · 10% over $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy peaceful country living in this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Cleveland, Texas. Situated on a spacious . 41-acre cleared lot, this property offers plenty of room to relax, entertain, or simply enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you’ll find a well-kept interior with a comfortable layout designed for everyday living. Step outside to the inviting front porch, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation while taking in the peaceful surroundings. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and everyday amenities, this home offers the ideal blend of privacy, space, and convenience.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Inviting front porch

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• SPACIOUS CLEARED LOT
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is cleared and located on a cul-de-sac with side yard; Lot size about 0.41 acre
• HOA & community: Houston El Norte POA with an annual fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2019
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Private yard; Fence in back yard; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Heating and cooling present
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat; No fireplaces; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood El (math 25% / reading 18%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,890 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.46%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Road 5105	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+2%)	3mo	$130,000	$114	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,887
• Equity at exit: $20,873

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $44,570
• Equity at exit: $12,104

Cash invested: $39,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,131/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,135

Max offer price $139,990

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,998
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
885 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	22d	1	0.93mi
895 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,990 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,990 Pending 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,990 Pending 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $139,990 Pending 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,990 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,990 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,990 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,990 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,990 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-05-28
    listed $139,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,131 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,431/yr (+$119/mo · 126.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,131
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,072
• Taxable income: $2,768
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$664
• After-tax cash flow: $4,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $139,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,131 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.