1911 Lost Greens Dr · Penitas, TX 78572

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 972 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 2008 3,000 sqft lot $129/sqft · 13% below area Est $144k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover comfort and convenience in this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a peaceful 55+ community in Mission, TX. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood with well-maintained surroundings, this property offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with access to fantastic amenities, including a clubhouse, pool privileges, and close proximity to the golf course—perfect for active living and relaxation. The home features a welcoming layout ideal for year-round living or a seasonal retreat. Enjoy the best of community living just minutes from shopping, dining, and local attractions.

Key facts

• Pool privileges
• Clubhouse
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL PRIVILEGES
• GOLF COURSE PROXIMITY
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIFESTYLE
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• WELL-MAINTAINED SURROUNDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($611/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Penitas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#820 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,016 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.74%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,238
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -13.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7410 Birdie Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	960 (-1%)	20mo	$99,900	$104	76
2404 W Bogey Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	896 (-8%)	3mo	$89,900	$100	74
7613 Bunker Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	909 (-6%)	15mo	$112,900	$124	74
7706 Bunker Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,078 (+11%)	14mo	$115,500	$107	67
7305 Bogey Dr	0.36mi	1/1.0 (-1)	976 (+0%)	9mo	$78,000	$80	66
7211 Bogey Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	896 (-8%)	6mo	$94,000	$105	64
7521 Par Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+11%)	16mo	$112,900	$105	60
2307 W Bogey Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0	840 (-14%)	1mo	$112,900	$134	59
2408 Double Eagle Dr	0.32mi	2/1.5	832 (-14%)	2mo	$94,500	$114	58
7414 Birdie Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,082 (+11%)	24mo	$87,000	$80	56
2507 W Bogey Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	832 (-14%)	20mo	$88,000	$106	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-19,302
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-21,638
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,120 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,517/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,056

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2503 Double Eagle Dr Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	43d	1	0.32mi
1908 Kennedy St Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,300	$1.22	23d	1	0.67mi
7220 W Interstate Highway 2 Unit 20 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$995	$0.90	43d	1	0.78mi
7220 W Interstate Highway 2 Unit 15 Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	945	$925	$0.98	43d	1	0.78mi
7220 W Interstate Highway 2 Fl STW 1 WITH BALCONY) FRONT UNIT Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	945	$895	$0.95	43d	1	0.78mi
7220 W Interstate Highway 2 Unit 12 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$995	$0.90	21d	1	0.78mi
7220 W Interstate Highway 2 Fl STW 3 WITH NO BALCONY) Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	945	$895	$0.95	19d	1	0.79mi
7220 W Interstate Highway 2 Fl STW 4 WITH PORCH) FRONT UNIT Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,150	$1.04	43d	1	0.79mi
109 Ash St Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	560	$800	$1.43	43d	1	0.82mi
3717 Clavel St Unit 8 Palmview, TX	2.0	1.0	1005	$800	$0.80	43d	1	0.83mi
3711 Chapa AVE Palmview, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	43d	1	0.89mi
3711 Chapa AVE Palmview, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,150	$1.16	14d	1	0.89mi
3706 Chapa AVE Palmview, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$1,100	$1.27	43d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    price $125,000 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Discover comfort and convenience in this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a peaceful 55+ community in Mission, TX. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood with well-maintained surroundings, this property offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with access to fantastic amenities, including a clubhouse, pool privileges, and close proximity to the golf course—perfect for active living and relaxation. The home features a welcoming layout ideal for year-round living or a seasonal retreat. Enjoy the best of community living just minutes from shopping, dining, and local attractions.

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $128,000 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Discover comfort and convenience in this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a peaceful 55+ community in Mission, TX. Nestled in a quiet neighborhood with well-maintained surroundings, this property offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with access to fantastic amenities, including a clubhouse, pool privileges, and close proximity to the golf course—perfect for active living and relaxation. The home features a welcoming layout ideal for year-round living or a seasonal retreat. Enjoy the best of community living just minutes from shopping, dining, and local attractions.

19. 2025-12-03
    listed $128,000 Active
20. 2023-11-20
    listed $128,000 Active
21. 2022-03-23
    soldstatus
22. 2014-11-24
    soldstatus
23. 2014-11-14
    historical
24. 2014-05-29
    listed $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$770/yr (+$64/mo · 50.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,517
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,075
• − Management: −$1,075
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$357
• After-tax cash flow: $968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Penitas

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #820
• US rank: #14866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $125,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $128,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $128,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-11-20 Listed $128,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-11-24 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2014-11-14 Delisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2014-05-29 Listed $62,500 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,517 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.