12100 Melville Dr Unit 302C · Conroe, TX 77356

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 964 sqft · Condo · 463 Days on market

Built 1979 Excellent condition $135/sqft · 19% below area Est $160k · 19% under $313/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready to unwind in your perfect new home? This beautifully updated condo is full of charm and completely move-in ready! Featuring new laminate flooring, recessed lighting, elegant crown molding, a cozy fireplace, sleek quartz countertops, double-pane windows, new blinds, ceiling fans, a stacked washer & dryer, and a spacious primary bedroom, this home offers both style and comfort. Located in the sought-after Marina Vista community within Walden on Lake Conroe, you’ll have access to incredible amenities—including fine dining, shopping, entertainment, swimming, fishing, an exercise room, golf, and scenic walking trails. Everything you need for relaxation and recreation is right at your doorstep! Don’t miss your chance to experience the best of lake living—schedule your showing today! The owner will consider all offers.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Recessed lighting
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• CROWN MOLDING
• COZY FIREPLACE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW BLINDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $130k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 463 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 463 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.89%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,539
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -18.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-16,436
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-20,746
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$313
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,533

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $193	+0% $148	+5% $104	+10% $59
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $80	+0% $148	+5% $216	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $214	-0.5pp $182	base $148	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12100 Melville Dr Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,750	$1.82	44d	2	0.11mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 317B Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$1,550	$1.72	44d	1	0.23mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 227C Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,700	$1.85	44d	1	0.23mi
801 River Rd Unit 116 Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	969	$1,350	$1.39	0d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $313 · $3,756/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Pending 463 DOM
2. 2026-04-16
   price $130,000 857-char remark

   Show marketing remark (857 chars)

   Ready to unwind in your perfect new home? This beautifully updated condo is full of charm and completely move-in ready! Featuring new laminate flooring, recessed lighting, elegant crown molding, a cozy fireplace, sleek quartz countertops, double-pane windows, new blinds, ceiling fans, a stacked washer & dryer, and a spacious primary bedroom, this home offers both style and comfort. Located in the sought-after Marina Vista community within Walden on Lake Conroe, you’ll have access to incredible amenities—including fine dining, shopping, entertainment, swimming, fishing, an exercise room, golf, and scenic walking trails. Everything you need for relaxation and recreation is right at your doorstep! Don’t miss your chance to experience the best of lake living—schedule your showing today! The owner will consider all offers.

3. 2026-02-26
   price $140,000 857-char remark

   Show marketing remark (857 chars)

   Ready to unwind in your perfect new home? This beautifully updated condo is full of charm and completely move-in ready! Featuring new laminate flooring, recessed lighting, elegant crown molding, a cozy fireplace, sleek quartz countertops, double-pane windows, new blinds, ceiling fans, a stacked washer & dryer, and a spacious primary bedroom, this home offers both style and comfort. Located in the sought-after Marina Vista community within Walden on Lake Conroe, you’ll have access to incredible amenities—including fine dining, shopping, entertainment, swimming, fishing, an exercise room, golf, and scenic walking trails. Everything you need for relaxation and recreation is right at your doorstep! Don’t miss your chance to experience the best of lake living—schedule your showing today! The owner will consider all offers.

4. 2025-06-27
   price $145,000 857-char remark

   Show marketing remark (857 chars)

   Ready to unwind in your perfect new home? This beautifully updated condo is full of charm and completely move-in ready! Featuring new laminate flooring, recessed lighting, elegant crown molding, a cozy fireplace, sleek quartz countertops, double-pane windows, new blinds, ceiling fans, a stacked washer & dryer, and a spacious primary bedroom, this home offers both style and comfort. Located in the sought-after Marina Vista community within Walden on Lake Conroe, you’ll have access to incredible amenities—including fine dining, shopping, entertainment, swimming, fishing, an exercise room, golf, and scenic walking trails. Everything you need for relaxation and recreation is right at your doorstep! Don’t miss your chance to experience the best of lake living—schedule your showing today! The owner will consider all offers.

5. 2025-02-22
   listed $150,000 Active 857-char remark

   Show marketing remark (857 chars)

   Ready to unwind in your perfect new home? This beautifully updated condo is full of charm and completely move-in ready! Featuring new laminate flooring, recessed lighting, elegant crown molding, a cozy fireplace, sleek quartz countertops, double-pane windows, new blinds, ceiling fans, a stacked washer & dryer, and a spacious primary bedroom, this home offers both style and comfort. Located in the sought-after Marina Vista community within Walden on Lake Conroe, you’ll have access to incredible amenities—including fine dining, shopping, entertainment, swimming, fishing, an exercise room, golf, and scenic walking trails. Everything you need for relaxation and recreation is right at your doorstep! Don’t miss your chance to experience the best of lake living—schedule your showing today! The owner will consider all offers.

6. 2015-06-15
   soldstatus Sold 109-char remark

   Show marketing remark (109 chars)

   Great unit, very close to the Walden Marina. All appliances stay. New carpet, very clean. Will not last long.

7. 2015-05-07
   status Pending 109-char remark

   Show marketing remark (109 chars)

   Great unit, very close to the Walden Marina. All appliances stay. New carpet, very clean. Will not last long.

8. 2015-04-24
   status Option Pending 109-char remark

   Show marketing remark (109 chars)

   Great unit, very close to the Walden Marina. All appliances stay. New carpet, very clean. Will not last long.

9. 2015-01-10
   listed $63,000 Active 109-char remark

   Show marketing remark (109 chars)

   Great unit, very close to the Walden Marina. All appliances stay. New carpet, very clean. Will not last long.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − HOA: −$3,756
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$69
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16
• After-tax cash flow: $1,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This beautifully updated condo is in excellent condition with no visible damage or wear. It offers both style and comfort and is located in the sought-after Marina Vista community within Walden on Lake Conroe, providing access to incredible amenities. The home is move-in ready and ready to be enjoyed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Update countertops and flooring — Updating countertops and flooring can enhance the home's aesthetic appeal and increase its resale value.
• Resale Paint interior walls — Painting interior walls can refresh the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Rental Upgrade appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract renters and increase rental value.
• Both Improve landscaping — Improving landscaping can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install smart home features — Installing smart home features can increase convenience and attract both buyers and renters, thus raising both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Update countertops and flooring — Updating countertops and flooring can enhance the home's aesthetic appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Painting interior walls can refresh the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Rental Upgrade appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract renters and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Improve landscaping — Improving landscaping can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Installing smart home features can increase convenience and attract both buyers and renters, thus raising both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+106.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-22 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2015-06-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-04-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-01-10 Listed $63,000 HARMLS