21040 Green Wing Ct · Connerton, FL 34637

$370,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2007 7,634 sqft lot Est $374k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at your future 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home in the community of Quail Trace. As you enter, you will immediately fall in love with the open concept layout. The spacious living room boasts beautiful wood-like flooring and is the ideal place to entertain guests. The stylish eat-in kitchen is a chef's dream, equipped with stainless steel appliances, a pantry, granite countertops, and a gorgeous tiled backsplash. Retreat to the privacy of the primary bathroom located desirably on the first floor and features a walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom with a dual sink vanity, soaking tub, and separate shower. Venture out to the expansive fenced backyard that offers a covered patio making this ideal for relaxing! This home is minutes from Land O'Lakes Blvd, shopping centers, restaurants, and much more!

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Community clubhouse
• Pool

Tags

• WILDERNESS LAKE PRESERVE
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Property is homesteaded
• HOA & community: HOA required (annual fee $256; approximately $21.33/month); Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, playground, tennis courts, basketball court and trails; Community features: sidewalks and street lights; deed restrictions; pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water connections; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; MPUD zoning; Two stories; Faces north; Entry on main level
• Construction: Stucco and wood siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with conventional residential construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sprinkler meter; Vinyl fencing; Corner lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Stone counters; Walk-in closets; Blinds, drapery rods and other window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in kitchen; Electric water heater; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,225 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.19%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $373,860
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7642 Citrus Blossom Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,083 (+12%)	1mo	$400,000	$192	73
7540 Kinnow Ct	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,042 (+10%)	3mo	$390,000	$191	69
21404 Morning Mist Way	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,941 (+4%)	5mo	$375,000	$193	68
7850 Genoa Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,884 (+1%)	3mo	$444,400	$236	66
8144 Sanguinelli Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,986 (+7%)	1mo	$450,000	$227	64
20904 Tangor Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,646 (-12%)	0mo	$285,000	$173	63
20907 Tangor Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-10%)	2mo	$345,000	$205	63
20738 Nectarine Pl	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,064 (+11%)	3mo	$350,000	$170	58
8432 Tarocco Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,746 (-6%)	6mo	$425,000	$243	52
21422 Diamonte Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-9%)	2mo	$328,000	$194	52
20907 Diamonte Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-9%)	3mo	$340,000	$201	51
21005 Wistful Yearn Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-13%)	7mo	$350,000	$217	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-54,199
• Equity at exit: $79,845

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-48,170
• Equity at exit: $76,019

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,012 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$540 /mo · $6,476/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,361

Max offer price $321,336

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21030 Green Wing Ct Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1945	$2,185	$1.12	24d	1	0.03mi
7655 Citrus Blossom Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2070	$3,100	$1.50	11d	1	0.10mi
7442 Citrus Blossom Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,470	$1.19	24d	1	0.33mi
20716 Eustis Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,050	$1.41	2d	1	0.47mi
20191 Sabal Palm Ct Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1404	$3,338	$2.38	3d	20	0.87mi
20602 Monza Loop Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,500	$1.37	24d	1	1.04mi
7232 Broad River Ave Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,550	$1.39	24d	1	1.25mi
7232 Broad River Ave Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,550	$1.39	11d	1	1.25mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	18d	1	1.48mi
6288 Shiner St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $370,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $370,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $370,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $370,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $370,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $370,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $370,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $370,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $370,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $370,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $370,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $370,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $370,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $370,000 Active
15. 2022-01-07
    soldstatus $363,900
16. 2021-12-27
    soldstatus $363,900 Closed 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Take a look at your future 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home in the community of Quail Trace. As you enter, you will immediately fall in love with the open concept layout. The spacious living room boasts beautiful wood-like flooring and is the ideal place to entertain guests. The stylish eat-in kitchen is a chef's dream, equipped with stainless steel appliances, a pantry, granite countertops, and a gorgeous tiled backsplash. Retreat to the privacy of the primary bathroom located desirably on the first floor and features a walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom with a dual sink vanity, soaking tub, and separate shower. Venture out to the expansive fenced backyard that offers a covered patio making this ideal for relaxing! This home is minutes from Land O'Lakes Blvd, shopping centers, restaurants, and much more!

17. 2021-11-19
    status Pending 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Take a look at your future 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home in the community of Quail Trace. As you enter, you will immediately fall in love with the open concept layout. The spacious living room boasts beautiful wood-like flooring and is the ideal place to entertain guests. The stylish eat-in kitchen is a chef's dream, equipped with stainless steel appliances, a pantry, granite countertops, and a gorgeous tiled backsplash. Retreat to the privacy of the primary bathroom located desirably on the first floor and features a walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom with a dual sink vanity, soaking tub, and separate shower. Venture out to the expansive fenced backyard that offers a covered patio making this ideal for relaxing! This home is minutes from Land O'Lakes Blvd, shopping centers, restaurants, and much more!

18. 2021-11-10
    listed $363,900 Active 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Take a look at your future 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home in the community of Quail Trace. As you enter, you will immediately fall in love with the open concept layout. The spacious living room boasts beautiful wood-like flooring and is the ideal place to entertain guests. The stylish eat-in kitchen is a chef's dream, equipped with stainless steel appliances, a pantry, granite countertops, and a gorgeous tiled backsplash. Retreat to the privacy of the primary bathroom located desirably on the first floor and features a walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom with a dual sink vanity, soaking tub, and separate shower. Venture out to the expansive fenced backyard that offers a covered patio making this ideal for relaxing! This home is minutes from Land O'Lakes Blvd, shopping centers, restaurants, and much more!

19. 2021-10-26
    soldstatus $362,121
20. 2019-04-26
    soldstatus $238,775
21. 2019-04-23
    soldstatus $238,775 Sold 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Built in 2007, this Land O Lakes two-story offers a two-car garage. A pool is included as part of the community HOA. Home comes with a 30-day buyback guarantee. Terms and conditions apply.

22. 2019-03-31
    status Pending 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Built in 2007, this Land O Lakes two-story offers a two-car garage. A pool is included as part of the community HOA. Home comes with a 30-day buyback guarantee. Terms and conditions apply.

23. 2019-03-07
    price $242,000 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Built in 2007, this Land O Lakes two-story offers a two-car garage. A pool is included as part of the community HOA. Home comes with a 30-day buyback guarantee. Terms and conditions apply.

24. 2019-02-14
    price $247,000 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Built in 2007, this Land O Lakes two-story offers a two-car garage. A pool is included as part of the community HOA. Home comes with a 30-day buyback guarantee. Terms and conditions apply.

25. 2019-01-28
    price $250,000 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Built in 2007, this Land O Lakes two-story offers a two-car garage. A pool is included as part of the community HOA. Home comes with a 30-day buyback guarantee. Terms and conditions apply.

26. 2018-11-29
    listed $251,000 Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Built in 2007, this Land O Lakes two-story offers a two-car garage. A pool is included as part of the community HOA. Home comes with a 30-day buyback guarantee. Terms and conditions apply.

27. 2018-11-14
    soldstatus $242,200
28. 2018-04-20
    historical
29. 2018-04-17
    price $229,900
30. 2018-01-17
    status Active
31. 2017-12-18
    status Pending
32. 2017-12-01
    listed $237,000 Active
33. 2010-01-07
    historical
34. 2009-12-11
    listed $169,000
35. 2008-03-31
    soldstatus $197,990
36. 2007-11-21
    listed $218,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,476 · $540/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,476 · $540/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$6,476
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,892
• − Management: −$2,892
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable loss: −$9,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,329
• After-tax cash flow: $-977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+69.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $370,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $363,900 Public Records
• 2021-12-27 Sold (MLS) $363,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-10 Listed $363,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $362,121 Public Records
• 2019-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $238,775 Public Records
• 2019-04-23 Sold (MLS) $238,775 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-07 Price Changed $242,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-14 Price Changed $247,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-28 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-29 Listed $251,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $242,200 Public Records
• 2018-04-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-17 Price Changed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-01 Listed $237,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-11 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-31 Sold (MLS) $197,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-21 Listed $218,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,476 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.