414 E Fremont St · Kenly, NC 27542

$219,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 1962 0.45 ac lot Est $280k · 22% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

All the room you will need and more!! Welcome to this charming Kenly home full of character and timeless appeal! This well-built, older home offers excellent bones and 1,648 sq ft of versatile living space, including 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, and two spacious living areas--with plenty of room and flexibility to easily accommodate a third bedroom. From the inviting front porch to the warm interior details, you'll feel right at home. The living room features beautiful wood floors and a bay window nook with a built-in china cabinet, while the oversized family room provides the perfect gathering space with a brick wood-burning fireplace, wood-beam ceiling, and built-in shelving. The eat-in kitchen

Key facts

• Wood-beam ceiling
• Bay window nook
• Wood floors

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• WOOD FLOORS
• BAY WINDOW NOOK
• BUILT-IN CHINA CABINET
• BRICK WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• WOOD-BEAM CEILING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.45 acres; Road frontage on a paved state road (public maintained)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story house; Wood siding exterior; Shingle roof; Zoned MHP; Facing direction not specified; Entry level on one main level
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Shingle roof; One-level structure
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Exterior storage; Back yard fencing; Barn(s) and additional storage structures; Property listed as fixer condition

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Built-in bookcases and storage; Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on the main level; Walk-in closet(s); Bathtub/shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room with sink

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-114/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Kenly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#183 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Glendale-Kenly Elementary (math 44% / reading 43%, grade F, #618 of 1,410 statewide, top 44%, 472 students, 68% FRL); North Johnston Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 600 students, 72% FRL); North Johnston High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 787 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,160
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 E Fremont St	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-5%)	16mo	$250,000	$160	72
208 S College Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (-1%)	9mo	$257,000	$157	72
202 S Wilson St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (-4%)	17mo	$270,000	$170	63
307 E Pope Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (-14%)	12mo	$248,000	$176	51
303 E Pope Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (-14%)	12mo	$248,900	$177	50
1139 Princeton Kenly Rd	0.70mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,616 (-2%)	9mo	$233,900	$145	50
303 E Pope Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (-14%)	12mo	$248,900	$177	49
305 E Pope Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (-14%)	14mo	$249,900	$177	49
1192 Princeton Kenly Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,822 (+11%)	13mo	$290,000	$159	32
301 S Darden St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,494 (-9%)	18mo	$219,900	$147	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $119,129
• Equity at exit: $198,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.70×
• Total profit: $351,239
• Equity at exit: $427,217

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27542

• Home prices YoY: 16.6%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,241/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,812

Max offer price $218,215

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $53	+0% $-10	+5% $-72	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-81	+0% $-10	+5% $62	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $46	base $-10	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 S College Ave Kenly, NC	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,800	$1.23	25d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $219,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $233,700 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,700 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,700 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $233,700 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $233,700 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    price $233,700 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $233,800 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $233,800 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $233,800 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $233,800 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,800 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    price $233,800 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,900 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    price $233,900
19. 2026-04-27
    price $234,000
20. 2026-04-27
    price $239,000
21. 2026-04-07
    price $244,000
22. 2026-03-18
    listed $249,000 Active
23. 2024-11-20
    historical
24. 2024-11-19
    listed $254,000 Active
25. 2024-11-19
    listed $254,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,241
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,911
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$939
• After-tax cash flow: $824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Kenly

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #9261

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kenly, NC
• Population (ZIP): 9,441

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Serbian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.03%
• Current HPI: 280.6408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $233,900 TMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $234,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $239,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $244,000 TMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $249,000 TMLS
• 2024-11-20 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2024-11-19 Listed $254,000 TMLS
• 2024-11-19 Listed $254,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,241 · +53.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.